“If Blinken wants Aliyev to negotiate sincerely, the State Department should rescind its recognition of Azerbaijani sovereignty and declare the entirety of Nagorno-Karabakh to be absent of the sovereignty of either Azerbaijan or Armenia pending the outcome of negotiations”
by Michael Rubin
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s words on Tuesday were chilling. Forget integration. Forget diplomacy. He demanded Armenia declare, “Karabakh is Azerbaijan,” or face the consequences. “Either they [Armenians] should accept Azerbaijani citizenship or find another place of residence,” he said.
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This is a call to transfer a millennia-old population. It is no accident that his words come as Armenians prepare to commemorate their previous genocide. Ethnic Armenians, meanwhile, refuse to place their security under Aliyev, given Azerbaijan’s record of pogroms, ethnic incitement, cultural denial, and destruction of centuries-old Armenian heritage.
Censuses dating back to the 19th and early 20th centuries, and physical and anecdotal evidence before that, show Nagorno-Karabakh to be historically Armenian. A century ago, Joseph Stalin transferred the mountainous region to Azerbaijan, however, as he sought to gerrymander the Caucasus to ensure ethnic identity was subordinate to the political and economic interests of the nascent Soviet Union. While, under the Soviet constitution, Nagorno-Karabakh’s secession from Azerbaijan was legal and its referendum in favor of the move overwhelming, the United States and the international community continue to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as belonging to Azerbaijan, even as they call for diplomacy to resolve the dispute.
Azerbaijan’s threats and Aliyev’s belittling of the Minsk Group diplomatic process undercut any legal basis for a State Department waiver to Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act. That legislation ties American assistance to Azerbaijan to its commitment to resolve conflicts diplomatically. Behind the scenes, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has defied the law, arguing that Azerbaijan is too strategically important. On this, he lives in the past.
Just as Turkey coasted on its reputation as a pro-Western asset while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan eviscerated the country from the inside, so too is the reality of Azerbaijan today at sharp dissonance to its reputation in Washington. Simply put, the U.S. owes Azerbaijan nothing, given its recent efforts to launder both Iranian and Russian oil. Like Turkey, it plays both sides of the Ukraine and Iran matters and treats Blinken and key senators and representatives as useful idiots. On one issue, however, Aliyev is correct. Diplomacy has not worked. The reason is simple: It takes two sincere partners. Aliyev shows insincerity.
It is time for a new approach: The State Department’s recognition of Stalin’s cynical border adjustments today disincentivizes diplomacy. If Blinken wants Aliyev to negotiate sincerely, the State Department should rescind its recognition of Azerbaijani sovereignty and declare the entirety of Nagorno-Karabakh to be absent of the sovereignty of either Azerbaijan or Armenia pending the outcome of negotiations.
To do so would encourage both sides to negotiate sincerely. It would also ease international efforts to broker talks by lifting the de facto veto Azerbaijan exercises on access by American and European diplomats to the besieged communities in Nagorno-Karabakh. It would also benefit the local population by enabling mine clearance specialists from U.S.- and U.K.-funded groups such as HALO Trust to clear fields, roads, and villages, activities that Aliyev currently impedes.
Diplomats might additionally accommodate local feelings via a referendum and enable local travel through the issuance of temporary travel papers, such as the United Nations once provided to Palestinian refugees. To ensure that Azerbaijan does not simply seek to conduct a military fait accompli, such revocation of recognition of Azerbaijan’s should coincide with the deployment of European, perhaps neutral Scandinavian, peacekeepers in the territory.
Aliyev has rejected the Minsk Group. For diplomacy to succeed, Blinken must bury Stalin’s legacy. It is time to negotiate Nagorno-Karabakh’s sovereignty based not on the whims of a Soviet dictator but on the democratic and cultural aspirations of its people.
Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
