On April 25, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan felt ill during a live broadcast, after which all pre-election activities of the 69-year-old president were temporarily postponed. Aravot.am spoke with Turkologist and Orientalist Ruben Safrastyan about this situation and the upcoming presidential-parliamentary elections in Turkey on May 14.
-Mr. Safrastyan, is the information about Erdoğan’s health reliable or exaggerated? What is known at the moment?
– He gave an online speech at the opening of the nuclear power plant. And since he was seen in the online format, albeit in a weak condition, the news that he was in a severe condition in the intensive care unit and that the family was called to the hospital turned out to be false. But it is obvious that there is a problem because the speech is online. The opening of the “Akkuyu” Nuclear Power Plant “is one of its most important projects.
In any case, it was announced that Erdoğan would not personally participate in the pre-election campaign in the coming days. That means that something happened. He lost consciousness while giving an interview. If Erdoğan’s condition allows him to recover after a few days, then the results of the elections will not be predetermined by this circumstance. And if it turns out that his condition is wrong, then it will have a significant impact.
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– In particular, what kind of influence are we talking about, and how much will it affect the outcome of the elections?
– I don’t think that if Erdoğan withdraws from the election campaign, the “Justice and Development” party can find an adequate replacement for him. Erdoğan is a very charismatic figure. No such figure in the party could replace him and have the same authority. It will be a heavy blow to the party. So let’s wait and see.
– If Erdoğan ceases to be the president of Turkey due to his health condition or the results of the elections, will this affect Turkey’s policy and goals towards Armenia? Will the change of the leader of Turkey imply a difference for us as well?
– If Erdoğan does not win and the opposition comes to power and gets a majority in the parliament, then the policy towards Armenia, in general, will not change in Turkey. My belief is based on the fact that for more than 30 years, Turkey has been pursuing the same policy towards Armenia, the foundation of which was laid back in 1991, when Turkey recognized the Republic of Armenia as one of the first but refused to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia.
The statement by which Turkey recognized the Republic of Armenia as an independent State, states that Turkey will think about establishing relations after clarifying some issues. Since then, considering the geopolitical realities, the Turkish elite has chosen its policy towards Armenia. And the fact is that Armenia has no access to the sea. That is why the Turkish elite has the following approach regardless of whether it is the opposition or the government. If Armenia is interested in having relations and an open border with Turkey, it must pay a price.
That price is the prerequisite that has been there for decades and recently added to the so-called “Zangezur Corridor.” In addition, at the beginning of this year, one of the outstanding figures of the opposition, Ahmet Davutoğlu , who was the former Foreign Minister and Prime Minister of Turkey, announced that now is the most opportune moment for us to put pressure on Armenia and get everything we want from it. Therefore, if the opposition comes to power, Turkey’s policy towards Armenia will not fundamentally change; they will demand that price. But since the opposition is connected with the West, the USA, the influence of the USA on Turkey’s politics will be more significant. It means that the USA favored the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations from the beginning. Considering this, if the current opposition becomes the government, the mentioned price will soften to a certain extent. But they will want the price anyway.
Luiza Sukiasyan
