Aravot’s interlocutor is Arman Grigoryan, Doctor of Political Science, Professor of Lehigh University, USA.
– Azerbaijan closed the Hakari River Bridge, the only road connecting Armenia and Artsakh. The entry of humanitarian goods into Artsakh was limited. Moreover, an Azerbaijani checkpoint has been set up in that area, and the Armenian side silently understands what is happening. What do you think is happening now, and where is it going?
– Everything is quite apparent. Azerbaijan consistently pursues a policy of subjugating Artsakh to Azerbaijan wholly and unconditionally. They also understand that if they succeed, most of the Armenians of Artsakh will leave. Finally, they are taking advantage of the fact that Armenia cannot abort these plans without external support, which is currently limited. The Russians are busy in Ukraine; therefore, a new crisis in the Caucasus is undesirable for them. In addition, the behavior of our authorities contributes to the relatively inert behavior of the Russians, which Azerbaijan also benefits from.
As for the West, it has no serious interest in curbing Azerbaijan. Some decisions are taken in international courts, and sometimes, as they like to say now, they make targeted statements criticizing Azerbaijan, but they could be more valuable. There are no sanctions, no military threats, and no intentions to provide military support to Armenia. And if they don’t do those things, the rest is unimportant. Azerbaijan is also using the favorable situation and trying to complete what it started in 2020 on September 27.
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– The Head of the Government, Nikol Pashinyan, announced earlier that beyond the village of Tegh is Azerbaijan, and so far, the oppositionists only manage to make unsuccessful attempts to capture the NA podium, new forces that will generate public dissatisfaction and lead it, did not submit a bid during this time. Do we have to accept that others should decide our state and people’s destiny according to their taste?
– I don’t think we should compromise, but I also see the difficulties that any new power will face. First, once Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan have entirely and irrevocably left the political life of Armenia, it will be challenging for any new force to come out against Pashinyan. Many people still support Nikol Pashinyan because they fear the restoration of the neo-feudal system created by those two figures and consider Nikol Pashinyan the most reliable obstacle to that restoration. Any rebellion against him or criticism against him revives that ghost.
Therefore, any new force will have to fight on two fronts: to come out against both Pashinyan and today’s parliamentary opposition and their satellites. And it is not easy because that force will have to do it with unequal resources. Second, any new power should propose a severe and credible agenda to pull Armenia out of this abyss; more than the goal of removing Nikol Pashinyan from power will be needed.
That agenda will inevitably presuppose the acceptance of some bitter realities, giving up some illusions and quite a radical editing of Armenia’s political history. Such an agenda will inevitably meet serious resistance, not only because our people have been fed and drugged with these illusions for years but also because the feeders continue to occupy dominant positions in our political, state, educational, information, and cultural institutions. This is why a new front is not formed in Armenia, despite its objective necessity.
– What way out of the situation is possible?
– Once, Beria came to Stalin and informed him that Marshal Rokossovsky was in love with Valentina Serova. Stalin accepts the news without reacting to it in any way. He silently walks around the room and smokes his favorite pipe. Beria interrupts the lengthy and already unbearable silence and asks: what are we going to do, Comrade Stalin (что будем делать, товарищ Сталин)? Stalin calmly answers: (что будем делать, завидовать будем) what shall we do, we shall envy him.
And if more serious, it is necessary to stop this futile and dangerous policy of looking for patrons in the West, accept the Russian plan for a peace treaty, and start implementing it. If it implies a Russian-controlled road connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan, which, as far as I understand, is the primary concern, that is very bad, but it is no worse than the same road under the control of Turkey and Azerbaijan.
In other words, in that case, it will not be a road but something completely different. The remaining rumors that the West is ready to guarantee that this road remains under our total and complete control, that we can, without taking into account the will of the Russians, exchange the recognition of Azerbaijan’s absolute sovereignty over Artsakh with Azerbaijan’s renunciation of point 9 of the November 10 document and I don’t find it convincing to do it under the auspices of the West. Moreover, I consider it dangerous.
I am inviting another barrage of curses and accusations upon me by saying this, but it is high time for Armenia to stop being afraid of it. The matter is over.
As for what is to be done in domestic political life, although I mentioned a little while ago the obstacles preventing the formation of a new force, I would still like to see consultations and discussions with the participation of some political parties and some individuals who agree with the parameters I mentioned for forming that force. Rome was not built in a day, either.
Interview by Nelly GRIGORYAN
“Aravot” daily newspaper, 03.05.2023
