“Aravot” interlocutor is analyst Armen Baghdasaryan.
– On the morning of May 11, the Azerbaijani armed forces launched an attack in the direction of Sotk. In other words, apart from exerting pressure in the negotiation process, is Azerbaijan also trying to gain an advantage using force?
– Taking advantage of the fact that the problem is not settled, Azerbaijan will try to constantly increase the pressure, realizing that it is also beneficial to Russia. Literally hours before those events, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that they expect Armenia to take steps to invite the CSTO observation mission to Armenia. In other words, it is natural that the stronger the external military pressures on Armenia, the more Armenia should be forced and interested in eventually inviting the CSTO observers. Therefore, it is possible to connect those two events. Here you can see elements of cooperative play.
– But Nikol Pashinyan openly declared that Armenia is also ready to deploy the CSTO observation mission. In other words, it is not the case that the Armenian government opposes the deployment of the CSTO observation mission; what is the problem?
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– First, we must understand that the presence of CSTO observers in Armenia will differ. In other words, it is a matter of concrete negotiations because Russia will demand tangible things from Armenia. Secondly, the responsibility should be clear because not the observers should ensure our safety. And thirdly, however, the area of responsibility should be clarified. And the reason for that delay is precisely because of disagreements on this issue.
Armen Baghdasaryan
In other words, the problem is not only that we invited them, they came, and that’s it. Not all issues are settled, and it is unclear what it should get in return to Armenia. For example, as a result of the deployment of the European Union observation mission, as we can see, our security level stayed relatively high. And it won’t happen that Armenia is forced to lower the level of its sovereignty even more by inviting CSTO observers but not get more substantive security guarantees in return. The problem is here; this is why this issue is constantly discussed, but no final decision is made.
– The negotiation process has reached an impasse; what should be done?
– The platform where these negotiations take place is essential. The platform is necessary, whether it is the West or Russia; that platform should ensure the implementation of the document to be signed so that it does not remain on paper. Therefore, negotiations have value only if they bring peace. Therefore, comprehensive peace should be sought on the platform that will guarantee it. In this case, the West is not capable of securing it because they could not even ensure the implementation of the decision of the Hague court.
– But at the same time, we see that the negotiations on the Russian platform are not yielding results; moreover, they do not favor Armenia: Consequently?
– Yes, there is no progress on the Russian platform either. And Russia is also unable to ensure the implementation of even the joint statement of November 9. Therefore, you should look for an opportunity on the platform where it will be. In my opinion, as it is not pleasant for us at the moment, perhaps the only platform is the “3+3” format because all the main problems in our region are solved in that triangle. I mean the Russia, Turkey, and Iran platform if those agreements are made. It is challenging because there is a conflict of interests, serious disagreements, and we are the weakest link. But, if we reach an actual agreement on that platform, I am confident that those agreements will be implemented on paper.
Roza HOVHANNISYAN
“Aravot” daily, 13.05.2023
