“Azerbaijan also has the full support of Russia in keeping the Lachin Corridor closed,” says Aravot’s interlocutor, Armen Grigoryan, President of the Centre for Policy Studies
– Four-day talks between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan were held in Washington, and then Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev held talks in Brussels with the mediation of European Council President Charles Michel. Is it possible to sign a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan through the mediation of the West?
– It is the only realistic possibility; the alternative is not even cooling the situation but continuing the creeping occupation. The circles protecting Russia’s interests continually repeat that the Russians ensure the security of the people of Artsakh on the ground, and therefore Armenia should be at the mercy of Russia to ensure the Russian military’s presence in the future. They “forget” that Azerbaijan will agree to extend the Russian presence after the five-year period only if it has the full support of Russia to secure its interests. It is known that both the surrender of the villages of Artsakh and the invasion of the sovereign territory of Armenia took place due to Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation and the departure of Russian units from those territories.
Armen Grigoryan, the Co-Founder and President of the Centre for Policy Studies
Azerbaijan also has Russia’s full support in keeping the Lachin Corridor closed. Some may claim that if the leadership of Armenia behaves “smartly” within the limits of “century-old friendship,” or if there is an urgent change of power in favor of the known forces, if we connect more closely with Russia in some format, Russia will provide a pro-Armenian solution․ Still, such conversations are as groundless as the old statements about “drinking tea” in Baku or about the problem being “solved,” considering not demanding Nakhichevan as a concession, etc. The problem is not even the weakening of Russia due to the war in Ukraine but the overlap of its interests with Azerbaijan and Turkey, which was evident before the beginning of the large-scale aggression against Ukraine, and even years ago, before the 44-day war. However, negotiations with the mediation of the West will be a longer and more complicated process than some optimistic estimates assume.
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– Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia is ready to deploy the CSTO observation mission. On the other hand, the presence of the EU mission in Armenia makes Moscow very nervous. The confrontation between Russia and the West, at least on this issue, has moved to Armenia. Isn’t this a dangerous situation for Armenia? What can this confrontation lead to?
– First of all, the presence of EU observers also irritates Baku and a significant part of the Armenian opposition, which is quite apparent and a telling fact. The current activation of the opposition is not accidental. The situation is hazardous. After all, Russia is, in fact, not a mediator, but a party to the conflict, whose influence must be counterbalanced. The statements about favoring the CSTO mission in case of fulfilling certain obligations may be an attempt not to stress the situation unduly. However, they will be interpreted by the relevant Russian circles unilaterally in their favor to increase the pressure on Armenia. In other words, any statement about approving the mission of the CSTO can be interpreted as an assumption of some obligation by Armenia. It’s like when exchanging any words with representatives of the criminal world leads to significant damage; for example, when they could ask someone as a joke, “Can you present me your car?” and it ends with being owed to criminals.
– A situation has arisen when Moscow, Baku, and the Armenian opposition oppose the deployment of European civil observers along the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. How do you explain that? On the other hand, it still needs to be clarified to our public what functions the EU mission has, so to speak, and what benefit it brings to Armenia regarding security. Can Armenia generally receive serious security support from European countries like France?
– The concern of Russia and its various allies is due to the time factor. Sanctions are already being tightened, and at the same time, the possibilities of circumventing them are being reduced, which some “nimble” businessmen of Armenia are already feeling on their skin. And if Ukraine’s counteroffensive succeeds in weeks or months, Russia will have even fewer opportunities to dictate its will and ambitions to have a sphere of influence. Both Moscow and Baku urgently need a tangible result, in the form of the Syunik Corridor or something else, so that they can put it on ”paper” so to speak, and later claim that the result of their dictation is a legitimate international document.
The activation of the opposition is equally understandable: in addition to being “more Russian than Russians” or simply performing a task, sometimes by repeating propaganda theses verbatim, the most ambitious of them know that they have no chance of coming back to power without the direct Russian intervention, and some, albeit with a very long delay, have begun to feel the ill-gotten gains the risk of loss directly. As for public ignorance about the EU’s observation mission, this is partly a consequence of counter-propaganda.
However, the lack of the strategic communication by the government also has a very negative effect. And finally, in terms of security, assistance should be expected to prevent further escalation and encroachment on the territory of Armenia (including the corridor issue) and keep negotiations with Azerbaijan in a constructive field.
Emma GABRIELYAN
“Aravot” daily, 23.05.2023
