Ariel Kogan
Political analyst, Israel
Modernizations and improvements to Iranian munitions will become a much larger threat to all who currently oppose Iranian warmongering – including Israel
After repeated promises, France decided to begin supplying Armenia with lethal weaponry, sources in the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry claimed.
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According to the reputable Telegram channel AZfront, the first batch of the 50 armored personnel carriers will arrive in Armenia in the near future.
Ukrainian secret services have been monitoring the situation in the zone of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict since the middle of 2022. Kyiv fears that Western military equipment supplied to Armenia could be used by the Russians, including to improve the methods and means of countering the same equipment supplied by the West for the Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russia’s invasion.
The likelihood is extremely high when taking into account the tight military cooperation between Yerevan and Moscow, which includes hosting two Russian military bases in the country.
The decision to begin direct military cooperation between France and Armenia was made during a visit by Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan to Paris in September 2022. Various sources announced the progress of the partnership in this area. In particular, the U.S. analytical outlet on international security, Global Security Review, wrote about the supply of arms: “The pro-Armenian rhetoric of [French] President [Emmanuel] Macron could lead to an agreement regarding air defense.” The possibility of supplying Armenia with French Mistral anti-aircraft missile systems was also noted.
Last month, Intelligenceonline.fr, a known mouthpiece for the French secret services, noted that Paris had begun preparing to build a system for exporting weapons to Armenia. At the same time, the head of the France-Armenia Friendship Group, Gilbert-Luc Devinaz, announced the upcoming supply of weapons: “We must allow Armenia to ensure the security of its borders, that is, we should help her arm herself.”
Earlier this month, the Russian outlet REX reported that the military aid that France plans to supply Armenia “at the initial stage includes lethal weapons.” And the Iranian information service Yazeco noted that “a new military attaché will be in charge of curating all the French deliveries of weaponry to Armenia.
“The main supporter of the military-political decision of Paris regarding the sending of weapons to Armenia was President Emmanuel Macron himself,” Yazeco added.
The start of weapons deliveries to Armenia has put France on a collision course with Israel. According to Jerusalem’s official policy, the Jewish state considers itself a strategic partner of Azerbaijan, and is one of the main suppliers of weapons to Baku’s defense forces, fulfilling all their requirements.
In the event of Erdogan losing the elections in Turkey, Israel could find itself the only strategic ally of Baku, which is regularly being threatened by Tehran.
The Franco-Israeli contradictions in the south Caucasian arena were publicly manifested as early as December of last year. Dozens of ministers and members of the Israeli parliament wrote a letter to Azerbaijan’s National Assembly: “We are unpleasantly surprised by the resolution of the French Senate calling for sanctions against Azerbaijan and an embargo on the purchase of gas and oil from it by the European Union.”
“This decision plays into the hands of Iran, a country interested in weakening Azerbaijan, which, nowadays, is an example of a country with a progressive [Shiite] Muslim population that maintains close ties with Israel and the Western world,” the letter added.
In the Turkish context, it is telling that the French began supplying weapons to Yerevan on the eve of the presidential elections. Erdogan has repeatedly positioned himself publicly as a counterweight to Macron in the last three years, both in the eastern Mediterranean and the south Caucasus. This was especially evident two years ago, after the victory of Azerbaijan – with the support of Turkey and Israel – in the Second Karabakh War.
It is imperative to note that the deliveries of French munitions started against the backdrop of a series of publications by leading Western outlets, according to which Armenia plays a key role not only in circumventing sanctions on Russia, but also in the secret exporting of chips and microcircuits for its military, as well as additionally serving as a trans-shipment hub for Iranian weapons sent to Moscow.
Also, during clashes in April and May between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and Armenia, the latter used Iranian drones – the same ones used by Russian troops in Ukraine. The likelihood that French weapons will fall into the hands of the Iranians is quite high. Iranian weapons manufacturers, who regularly use reverse engineering, will be able to use such a tactic to modernize and improve their own arms, which are exported to several terror organizations looking to destabilize the Middle East.
Renowned Israeli expert Ron Ben Ishay already warned that modernizations and improvements that Iranian munitions will undergo – inevitably thanks to Russian usage in Ukraine – shall become a much larger threat to all the powers that currently oppose Iranian warmongering. Meaning Israel.
