Russia is now experiencing severe internal upheavals. I would call what started in Russia a mutiny or an attempt at a rebellion,” said the guest of “Aravot’s” “Areresum” (“Confrontation”) program, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary David Shahnazaryan, who in 1992-1995 was the Ambassador with special assignments of the President of RA, and in 1994-95 he headed the State Department of National Security.
David Shahnazaryan believes there will be armed clashes and did not rule out that this uprising could become a civil war. “It is possible that this will happen, although, in my opinion, the probability of this is not high. In my opinion, everything depends on how much of the army will join Yevgeny Prigozhin. But still, I think it is doubtful that the rebels will succeed.”
Our interlocutor expressed that the political consequences of what happened would be enormous for Russia. “The government will undergo a lot of personnel and even structural changes. I want to mention one more circumstance. It appears that Russia is not a deep state. Let me give two examples that are not related to these events.
About three weeks ago, the Spokesman of the Russian President, Peskov, speaking about the start of the war in Ukraine, made such a statement; who would have thought that the West would show such great support to Ukraine? The answer is that it should have occurred to you first.”
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To the assumption that maybe they meant the precedent of Georgia, Mr. Shahnazaryan responded that even if they meant it, a wrong calculation was made. “The Kremlin made one fundamental mistake in the calculations to start this war or, as they say, the “special military operation,” and all the mistakes have already stemmed from it. This fundamental mistake made the Kremlin sure they would be greeted with flowers, at least in Eastern Ukraine, in Kharkiv, Chernihiv. And in that case, of course, there would be severe consequences for the government of Ukraine.”
As evidence of not being in control of the situation, David Shahnazaryan also mentioned the second example: “The president of the Russian Federation announced about two weeks ago that they are opening the air connection with Georgia and abolishing the visa regime. When that announcement appeared in the morning, I immediately called my acquaintances and friends in Tbilisi, who are in politics; whether in the government or the opposition and asked if demonstrations against that announcement had already started. They said no, they will start in the evening. A few days later, Putin commented that he was amazed that there was such dissatisfaction in Georgia. In other words, Russia’s top leadership does not know the internal situation. Now it is the same with Prigozhin.
The problem had to be solved. Prigozhin had been acting in this style for months, for a year, but the problem was not solved in any way, and it led to this.”
But the subject of our interlocutor’s concern is the following: “Azerbaijan can take advantage of this; this is a new opportunity. And I do not doubt that at this moment, they are discussing this in Baku, together with Ankara, whether to start any actions or not. In any case, there has been no response from the Armenian authorities until now, which is more than surprising.
What should be done? First, the army and border guard forces, and law enforcement agencies must be brought to a state of high readiness.
Secondly, I am highly concerned about the issue of Rostov-on-Don and our communities in Russia. If Azerbaijan does not take any military actions against Artsakh now, it may start conflicts against Armenian representations, Armenian community structures, and churches through its hooligan resources, and assets. I would call on our compatriots to ensure their safety, their families, and all our Armenian structures by all possible means.
I repeat it is at least surprising that the authorities of Armenia are following all this with such Olympian calm, knowing the opportunities of Azerbaijan in Russia. And considering that today’s Russia is not an ally of Armenia.”
Anna ISRAYELYAN
