This is the main lesson of the “rebellion” undertaken by Prigozhin
American political scientist David Easton proposed a model for studying the political system in which the “black box” plays a central role. You enter something into that box; you get a particular result at the “output” of it. The same can be extended to the state. Suppose you want a stable financial system and introduce some parameters into the “black box.”
And suddenly, you see that, for example, the circulation of several currencies comes out of the “black box,” and the foreign currency is more valuable than your national one. Do you remember, in the 1990s, this was the case in Armenia? Therefore, the original “input” parameters were incorrect and must be changed.
Russia set a goal of conquering Ukraine in 2022, and as a “way out,” it received its not very organized Armed Forces, which have not been able to fulfill the tasks set before them for 16 months. But more is needed; it has also received several illegal armed groups, at least two of which, Kadyrov’s and Prigozhin’s groups, will still cause a big headache for the state. Therefore, the data entered into the “black box” on February 24, 2022, was incorrect. People more familiar with Russian reality will tell you which parameters were wrong.
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Dmitry Peskov, the Press Secretary of the Russian President, admitted about one of them: the Kremlin did not expect that the West would provide such extensive and multifaceted support to Ukraine. There is only one answer to that: you should have waited. But that was certainly not the only wrong “input data” – let the experts point out the rest.
But I can tell you where that “wrong data” came from. In short, the reason is the weakness of the state under a brutal authoritarian regime. In a modern, powerful state, decisions are made by calculation, considering the realities, not based on one person’s whims and imperial fantasies. The fact that Vladimir Putin decided to attack Ukraine proves that the first person of the state in Russia is detached from reality: he is surrounded by flattering courtiers whose mind is to please the king and “hunt” his thoughts and intentions to receive the praise of “beloved leader.” Let’s recall, for example, how the issue of war was decided on February 22, 2022, during the meeting of the Security Council. The Council members were literally trembling with fear lest they suddenly say the wrong word.
Kyiv could not be taken in three days, as so many “literate and conscientious” generals assured Putin. The war dragged on. And in that case, the Russian President made the second most serious, perhaps fatal mistake: he allowed illegal armed groups, including “Wagner” and Kadyrov’s army, to participate in the war, in addition to the Russian Armed Forces. By the way, if there is ever an armed conflict between them, it will inflame nationalist passions in Russia and increase the number of Prigozhin’s supporters, which are already not few. To allow a private individual, and one with a criminal record at that, to go around penitentiaries and recruit criminals for war seems to be the height of adventure.
Prigozhin’s militants, showing great determination and brutality, immensely helped capture the Ukrainian cities of Bakhmut and Soledar and did what the Russian army could not do. This explains Prigogine’s ambitions and that Wagner’s militants are now very popular and, for example, were leaving Rostov- on- Don to applause.
The Wagnerites did not face any serious resistance during their 200-kilometer “march of justice,” a large part of the military sympathized with them. No state system in Russia can resist such formations. Even if Prigogine will be lost in the Belarusian forests, it is still a signal to the Russian elite that Putin is not so “great” and “terrible” and the “vertical of power” glorified for two decades is not working effectively. To put it mildly, Putin’s prospects in the war are questionable.
Russia cannot become a totalitarian country where the state system can be “subjugated” purely by force. We see the consequences of autocracy. The only way out is democratization. But until that happens, unfortunately, that country will go through many years of “troubled times.” Not to mention that it is absolutely not beneficial for us Armenians.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
“Aravot” daily, 27.06.2023
