What is the ultimate goal of official Yerevan? What is the calculation of the Armenian side in regional dangerous games and “trade”?
On the very day when the Mirzoyan-Bayramov negotiations under the auspices of United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken began in Washington, a few hours after these negotiations, on June 28, at 1:30, units of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces opened fire from artillery means Martuni and in the direction of the Armenian positions in Martakert, using drones.
The Artsakh Defense Army reports that the Armenian side has four victims. “In the previous days, the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, by continuously spreading false reports that the units of the Defense Army allegedly violated the ceasefire, and, in particular, on June 27, by spreading an untrue message about the wounding of a soldier of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces by fire from the Armenian side, created an informational basis for another provocation”, – said in the statement of the military department of Artsakh.
The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan had already prepared the ground for further steps with the message published the previous evening, reporting “the shelling of the Azerbaijani positions located in the Aghdam region, the wounding of an Azerbaijani serviceman,” which Stepanakert denied. Baku claimed it was carrying out retaliatory actions.
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To make the “guilt” of the Armenian side seem credible, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov complained in the meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken that “the Armenian side wants to hinder the peace process and resorts to provocations.” Bayramov said that for the success of the peace process, it is necessary to withdraw the Armenian military, which “has not yet been fully withdrawn from the territory of Azerbaijan, and to follow the sovereignty and territorial integrity not by word, but by deed.”
Thus, Aliyev sent Bayramov to Washington to predetermine the outcome of the negotiations in Washington from the beginning.
The position of official Baku is known. The authorities of Azerbaijan continuously refer to the statement of November 9, 2020, presenting several demands to Armenia and Artsakh, sometimes even threatening and, most importantly, demanding a “corridor” from Armenia.
Russia “accords” to Baku’s demands, from where they blame the West weekly, accuse them of “poking their noses” in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations, and endlessly reminds that Armenia-Azerbaijan problems can only be solved in the Russian tripartite format and the agreements reached by the parties in that format must be fulfilled.
Here, it is essential to record again that the aggressive policy of Azerbaijan against Armenia and Artsakh and the non-fulfillment of the requirements of the tripartite document are not mentioned by Moscow as a factor blocking the peace negotiations. Moreover, all expectations of Moscow and Baku are from official Yerevan.
Here, in this situation, it is essential to understand, in general, how serious official Yerevan is in implementing the efforts of the West in general. The game is undoubtedly complicated; all players have their interests. However, it is essential to understand the final goal of official Yerevan, the calculation of the Armenian side, and in which direction it is moving.
In particular, the question is the following: is Yerevan playing on the contradictions between the Russian side and the West, making it clear that if “it doesn’t get what it wants, it will accept the other’s proposal”… Or is it ready to delay and defeat the efforts of the other party with incomprehensible behavior and behavior to please one party and earn its trust?
By an “amazing” coincidence, on June 27, when the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations were starting in Washington, the Supreme Body of the ARF Armenia initiated a 24-hour sit-in in Yerevan in front of the embassies of the United States, the Russian Federation, the Republic of France and the EU representation in Armenia. Of course, they justly remind them that there is a decision of the UN International Court of Justice, and there are PACE resolutions, but Azerbaijan ignores all of that.
But the most important thing is not said; The tripartite document of November 9, 2020, which, as Vladimir Putin admitted, “he has written,” all its points were violated by Azerbaijan immediately after the end of the 44-day war. Azerbaijan has been unpunished for almost three years because Russia, the guarantor of that document, ignores Azerbaijan’s behavior. It reached the point that Azerbaijan already blocked the movement of vehicles of the Russian peacekeeping troops delivering humanitarian cargo from Armenia to Artsakh. The Azerbaijani side was stopping and inspecting the trucks of the Russian peacekeeping troops.
Just a few days ago, there was an attempt to advance the Azerbaijanis in the direction of the Hakari Bridge; the Azerbaijanis tried to place the flag of Azerbaijan on the territory of Armenia with the involvement of Russian peacekeepers.
Meanwhile, the ARF- only made a sign of equality between Russia, the USA, France, and the EU with its demonstration; as a result, again “justifying” Russia’s inaction in Artsakh, although the demonstrators made some statements that day, pointing out Russia’s passive attitude.
However, with that demonstration, the issue of Russia’s responsibility was again equated with the USA, France, and the EU, with whom Armenia and Azerbaijan did not sign any post-war documents, and American and European troops were not deployed in Artsakh and did not undertake to ensure the free movement of Artsakh Armenians.
This time, the Artsakh Parliament also worked quite promptly, which on June 28, called “to the delegation of the Republic of Armenia in the Washington negotiations to immediately stop the negotiations that have started”. Demanding from the UN Security Council, the heads of the co-chair countries of the OSCE Minsk Group, in addition to statements of sympathy, appeals, and advice, to take concrete, practical steps, in particular, to apply sanctions against Azerbaijan, the Parliament of Artsakh only demanded from Russia to “stop Azerbaijan’s anti-human, genocidal acts.”
As a result of what, Azerbaijan began to feel more impunity after November 9, 2020, and how is it that escalations occurred in Artsakh on the days of the Washington negotiations, and on the days of the last negotiations, Artsakh had four victims.
The unforgivable mistake of the official Yerevan was that after the signing of the document on November 9, when it became clear that the goal of the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem was not only Artsakh, no point of that document was implemented, and after the 44-day war against Artsakh, the “corridor” from Armenia is the primary goal of Ankara and Baku, and Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Russia started demanding this “corridor” from Yerevan, the Armenian authorities agreed to go to negotiations under the auspices of both Moscow and the West.
After quite a delay, the Artsakh Parliament demands official Yerevan stop participating in the negotiations. Still, the most interesting thing here is that they ordered to stop participating not in the negotiations organized by all geopolitical centers but in the negotiations in Washington.
I wonder why…
EMMA GABRIELY AN
“Aravot” daily, 29.06.2023
