The Armenian MPG company representing the “GALLUP International Association” has published the results of another telephone survey conducted in June.
First, let me make a general note about such requests. People who don’t like the results of these polls always shout: “We don’t believe it; it’s all a lie, all the numbers are fake.” But it is necessary to understand what these results can indicate. In social sciences, it is impossible to talk about linear, one-lined processes: we are dealing with people and groups whose behavior is unpredictable and non-rational in most cases.
Only possible scenarios can be discussed here. In other words, if, for example, according to a poll before the presidential elections, it turns out that one gets 80 percent of the votes and the other gets 20 percent, it does not mean that precisely this result of the elections is predicted. It just means that one has an 80 chance of success, and the other has a 20 chance of success. And the second feature of surveys is that in countries like ours, there is a lot of mistrust towards everyone, and, especially when they call on the phone, people refuse to talk or when listening to a question containing “foot-notes,” they prefer to “I’m having difficulties answering” option, away from troubles.
With these reservations, it is interesting to observe not so much the absolute numbers as the dynamics, the change of people’s views during a certain period of time, in this case, from January to June. In that sense, the answers to two questions are remarkable. Who is to blame for the situation in Artsakh? Over the past few months, the percentages of Azerbaijan, Russia, and Turkey have significantly decreased, and the number of citizens who believe that the Armenian authorities are guilty has increased from 29 percent to 35 percent.
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From which country can military and political assistance be received in case of aggression by Azerbaijan? Again, expectations for all possible countries fell significantly, with a relative majority (35.8 percent) claiming that “there is no such country.” In January, that percentage was 8.7.
The survey shows that most of our citizens are against changing the flag, coat of arms, and anthem of Armenia. More than half, 56 percent, do not trust Pashinyan’s speeches at the NA commission examining the circumstances of the 44-day war. If these data are correct, they inspire some optimism.
As for the Yerevan Council of Elders elections, there still needs to be clarity here. Candidate for the government Tigran Avinyan and former mayor Hayk Marutyan show close results, 10.1 and 8.2 percent, respectively. However, Marutyan has yet to announce his participation. And if he declares, it is unclear from which camp he will play.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
