by Tatevik Hayrapetyan
What Is Aliyev Hinting At?
During a recent media forum in occupied Shushi, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev rhetorically asked how many messages must be sent before the Azerbaijani side is understood. He defended Baku’s establishment of a border checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor, stating that the steps taken were “logical, justified, legitimate, competent, and sufficiently courageous.” He continued, “Despite not being immediately and entirely welcomed by all parties; these actions were ultimately perceived as legitimate. They also served as a message. But how many times must we send messages? How many hints are enough? Wasn’t it sufficient? The Farrukh operation, the situations on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border in May 2021 and September 2022, and the border checkpoint […] Are they truly so slow-witted?”
During the July 21 forum, Aliyev gathered over 100 journalists from various countries to convey that there is no longer any conflict, blockade, or starvation in Artsakh. He presented this as a prime opportunity for international investments. However, his obsession with the military success achieved in the 2020 Artsakh War, with the assistance of Turkey, led him to overtly display his animosity toward the Armenian people, accompanied by aggressive rhetoric.
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Aliyev has admitted that several aggressive actions were carried out against both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh with the intention of “sending a message”. Interestingly, while previously Aliyev justified his actions with false narratives about “provocations” from the Armenian sides, he now unquestionably confesses that all these actions, resulting in territorial and human losses, were well-planned operations aimed at conveying a message. Later, Aliyev himself explains the essence of the message: “I was told many times by mediators during the occupation that ‘the First Karabakh War ended like this, so you must accept the realities.’ But I wasn’t accepting them and did not. I am saying again: accept these realities, and these realities will only change – if they do – not for the benefit of either Armenia or the Armenian minority in Karabakh. Therefore, I hope that they will hear these words and draw the right conclusion.”
Therefore, the clear message coming from autocratic Baku is that if negotiations fail, force or the threat of force will be used to achieve their goals. According to Aliyev, he has the power to change the realities on the ground and enforce them on Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Furthermore, Aliyev has described the November 9 trilateral statement as an “act of capitulation”, indicating that behind the current “peace deal”, he expects another act of “capitulation”, where Armenia gives in completely and Azerbaijan keeps demanding more and more, with no real intention to compromise.
How Did Aliyev Normalize the Use of Force?
In a recent interview with Euronews, Aliyev was asked about his life’s mission. He responded that winning a war was the mission of his life, which he successfully achieved. This candid statement suggests that Aliyev had always been pretending to engage in peace negotiations, when in reality, he never sought a compromised and peaceful resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. He had been preparing for war.
Even after the 44-day war, one of the fundamental principles necessary for a peaceful settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh remained unaltered –– Artsakh Armenians’ right to self-determination.
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