In countries like Armenia, a revolution (or a change of power, whatever you want) can only happen if the internal factors mature. I believe that opposition circles, which explain the events 2018 with a mere “Soros conspiracy”, are mistaken. At that time, society was boiling from within, and Serzh Sargsyan and his entourage did everything to increase the boiling point to an explosion. (By the way, I also can’t entirely agree that it was done on purpose).
But, on the other hand, a change of power cannot happen in a country like Armenia if there are no external factors. What makes us attractive to external players? Unfortunately, we don’t have gas and oil; we don’t have a robust industry; we don’t have a passionate society ready to fight for the idea. We also cannot use the Diaspora factor. The only issue that can generate interest “for outsiders” is the issue of Artsakh.
The external incentive of the 2018 change of government was to bring to power a person who would solve this problem. The West and Russia were equally (but for different reasons) interested (and are) in getting this problem out of the way. Therefore, to the question of who brought Pashinyan, my answer is that it resulted from the consensus of different parties. Russia and the West did not want a war here; only Pashinyan was responsible for the war and the victims, who (in his own words) “didn’t have enough courage” to do what was required of him. He didn’t do it so they wouldn’t say, “Nicole, the traitor.”
In the past five years, the relations between Russia and the West have changed from a “tense” situation to a hostile one. Unfortunately, they also entered into competition regarding Artsakh, although before that, they cooperated within the framework of the Minsk Group. Both sides need Pashinyan to sign a “peace agreement.” The fight is over whose terms it will happen; in particular, with the “corridor” (a Russian-Turkish plan) or without it? On the other hand, Russia did not want Pashinyan to declare that Artsakh is a part of Azerbaijan before the end of the negotiations, Washington and Brussels insisted on this, and the Prime Minister of Armenia met that demand, which, I think, was also wrong.
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I suggest the Armenian government give up that dangerous “advance.” And to the society of Armenia to prove that not only in Artsakh but also in RA, there is a society that does not tolerate Russian-Turkish or Western programs։ and a public that wants to be a factor.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
