“We may wake up one day and see that Russia is not here,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in his last interview. Of course, it is possible. And if such a thought were expressed by a pensioner playing dominoes in a backyard pavilion or (which is almost the same) a Facebook status writer, it would be a perfectly normal prediction. But for other categories of citizens and, even more so, for the country’s first person, such judgments can be very mildly called a manifestation of infantilism.
A citizen with a certain amount of knowledge should think under what pressure or circumstances such a thing could happen and whether Russia’s withdrawal will be temporary (as it has already been) or permanent. Is the current government of Armenia in favor of or against that removal? It’s not rain or hail; it’s a political process, and the states of the South Caucasus can help or hinder it.
Suppose the current authorities of Armenia want to facilitate the removal of Russia. In theory, I’m all for it. But such statements or even hints can be made if 1/ there is an explicit agreement that a NATO military base will immediately replace the Russian military base in Gyumri and the Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh by international peacekeeping forces, 2/ there are negotiations with Russia in those directions, 3/ the position of Iran is taken into account. I assume that no serious work is being done on these three points.
Simply threatening, “If this continues, we will leave the CSTO and EAEU,” reminds me of a journalistic style of a particular direction: “If you are not good with me, I will publish the compromising material I have against you.” International relations work differently than that.
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According to my impression, Pashinyan’s strategic planning is done by “extra-parliamentary forces,” whose leaders meet with the Prime Minister once a month, and on the rest of the days, they make emotional speeches about Putin’s policies on various broadcasts. But if, nevertheless, there is an expert group dealing with strategic issues, think about two questions. 1/Is the Russia-West enmity eternal? 2/Is the West interested in the final destruction of Russia?
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
