The interlocutor of “Aravot” is political and public figure Karen Karapetyan.
– There have been vast accumulations of military equipment on the border with Armenia for several days now; even the authorities of Armenia are sounding the alarm about this in meetings with various ambassadors. Do you consider the military aggression by Azerbaijan against RA to be logical at this stage, or are these accumulations, so to speak, for a show of force and creating an atmosphere of fear?
– Accumulations of Azerbaijani military equipment on the borders of Armenia can be both a show of force and an attempt to put pressure on the Armenian authorities, and they can be preparations for a new war. The probability of both is very high. Let’s add to that that the Azerbaijani media are creating a daily background for new warfare because their news feeds are completely flooded with news that the Armenian armed forces open fire several times a day in the direction of the Azerbaijani positions, including in the Nakhichevan area.
Let’s leave aside the fact that a large part of the so-called Azerbaijani positions are located in the sovereign territory of Armenia, but at this moment, let’s emphasize the meaning of the circulation of this fake news. They are not done just to provide information but to prepare the ground for military operations. So, the possibility of a new war is exceptionally high. However, in another circumstance, Aliyev’s assistant, Hajiyev, announced that about 70 percent of the peace agreement satisfies Armenia and Azerbaijan. In other words, 30 percent remains.
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However, we don’t know what that 30 percent is; maybe that 30 percent is the key, and perhaps the importance of that 30 percent is much greater than the 70 percent agreed upon. Let’s also add Erdogan’s statement that Armenia has chosen a provocative course of action in the region. If we add to that that Nikol Pashinyan once again announced at the government session that Armenia is ready to sign a peace treaty, and on the other hand, he mentioned that the situation is worsening because Azerbaijan is accumulating troops on the border, then the probability of war almost quadruples. But a different scenario may develop; Azerbaijan will increase its accumulations to the peak and once again wring painful concessions for us from Armenia, naturally in the form of territories. Taking into account the obsession of the Armenian authorities to cede territories, this option is also not excluded.
– What situation has the region found itself in, and what developments are possible, especially since Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that Russia is acting from the position of deepening cooperation with Turkey in Transcaucasia. What can we lose or gain from this Russian-Turkish rapprochement against the background of the tensions between Armenia and Russia?
– The thesis that nothing can be changed in the current situation is another manipulation by the authorities. First of all, it is an attempt to ward off guilt. The second is the message to the public that fighting in the current situation is pointless because no matter who it is, it is the same and cannot change anything. Naturally, when they say struggle, they mean only the internal political struggle, only the fear of losing their power. Such a point of view is baseless, even without ideas. First of all, there is no situation that cannot be changed. For that, we need a government guided by national interests, free from the humiliating shackles of defeat, and carrying clear political ideas; in other words, we must first get rid of these authorities. Armenia and Artsakh stop being of interest to regional players only because of Nikol Pashinyan and his “political” team.
Therefore, they should be removed as directly responsible and guilty of all this. In addition, those circulating such theses try to present politics as a natural phenomenon that happens outside of human will. The person himself implements the kind of politics, and politics of the sort that the person implements, such a situation is created. If we follow the course of history, the individuals made history; they broke events, defined new situations, and changed the world.
Naturally, Nikol Pashinyan is not that person. He has already blackened the pages of Armenian history by handing over a large part of Artsakh, including Shushi and Hadrut, handing over the territories of Armenia, and talking about the possibility of giving the villages of Tigranashen and Tavush to Azerbaijan. He turned Armenia from a winner to a loser. Therefore, his “historical” mission is over, and he must leave. As for the Russia-Turkey rapprochement, history shows we have never benefited from that rapprochement.
However, history cannot always repeat itself. But the danger increases because, along with the rapprochement of Russia-Turkey relations, the deterioration of Armenia-Russia relations occurs, even approaching a rupture. At the very least, one must have an extremely fantastic view to find benefits for us in all this. Of course, the hope of some is the West, but it should be clearly understood that the West’s assistance is only to push Russia out of the region, and if it succeeds, no Western soldier will fight for Armenia, even during a full-scale war. In case of Russia’s exit from the region, that mandate will be transferred to the West, and the West will appear here as Turkey.
Interview by Nelly GRIGORYAN
“Aravot” daily, 09.08.2023
