Azerbaijan cannot start a large-scale war on its own. That country does not have sufficient military and economic potential for this. To have any prospect of success, Azerbaijan needs Turkey’s comprehensive military support, the kind of support it received during the 44-day war.
But that is not enough either: Azerbaijan also requires at least Russia’s tacit consent, which it acquired in 2016 and 2020. At the moment, according to my impression, Azerbaijan does not have that bilateral “dobro-consent.” It does not mean Turkey and Russia will not start a new war after a week or a month.
Whether or not there will be a full-scale war was probably discussed last week during the meeting between Putin and Erdogan in Sochi. The main topic, as is known, was the so-called “grain deal,” but it is almost impossible that the two leaders did not discuss the situation in the South Caucasus.
Russia and Turkey certainly have a common agenda, where the “Zangezur Corridor” takes a central place. Our authorities insist they will not allow such a thing, and the topic is closed. Well, they are definitely right; when did our powers lie? In any case, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan and the Minister of Transport of Turkey have made relevant statements these days.
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Iran’s Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani’s statement that his country will not allow a new war in the region speaks in favor of the assumption that the possibility of a large-scale war shortly is not high.
On the other hand, clashes of the scale that took place exactly one year ago, on September 13-14, 2022, are unfortunately quite possible now. Let me remind you that at that time, we had 224 victims. According to the head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Armenia, Edvard Asryan, 139 square kilometers of the sovereign territory of our country is now under occupation. But no one seems to remember the events of the past year. Moreover, government propagandists assure that Pashinyan is fighting for the country’s sovereignty.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
