“Azerbaijan is doing what it has repeatedly announced and planned, which it did not even hide. It aims to finally depopulate Artsakh, considering that Armenia has washed its hands of that topic. After appropriate propaganda preparation, he implemented that program. I cannot say how many days Artsakh can resist with its small, poorly armed army. I don’t think the international community will take steps apart from some statements,” political commentator Armen Baghdasaryan told Aravot.am.
According to our interlocutor, the Azerbaijanis will try to depopulate Artsakh, and whether they will complete their depopulation plan or not, according to Armen Baghdasaryan, depends on how much the Artsakh Armed Forces will be able to resist, as well as on whether all the forces that will try to stop that process, what will they demand from Armenia in return, what way will they try to advance their interests in the South Caucasus?
Political commentator Armen Baghdasaryan
“In other words, the statements that this is another new genocide, a humanitarian disaster, etc., are just a veil that hides the real interests of the international community, including Russia and the West, which are ready to take advantage of the opportunity and put pressure on the Armenian side, get the maximum for themselves.”
“The Armenian Foreign Ministry calls on the UN Security Council and Russian peacekeepers to take measures to stop Azerbaijan’s military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh. And what should we do when official Yerevan recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan,” Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said sarcastically. Armen Baghdasaryan, referring to the sarcasm of the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, noted that Russia behaves as usual. “The Russian Federation is constantly guided exclusively by its interests, which is normal. In our region, he exclusively always takes the same line to advance his interests at the expense of Armenia’s interests. In other words, there is no need to have illusions here. Even in this small episode, Azerbaijan says that it has informed the Russian side in advance about its military actions, but Zakharova denies it, saying, “We call on the parties and so on.”
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In other words, it shows equality between the parties, even if Azerbaijan has started the operations and has informed about the start. Russia is currently playing on the same field as Azerbaijan and Turkey against Armenia. It is a different matter that one should not blame Russia for this but understand why it is so. Why did the RA authorities adopt such a policy? We must ensure that our interests coincide with those of Russia and the power poles. We should look for mistakes in ourselves, not declare Russia a traitor. A relative usually does betrayal; the Russian Federation is not close to us, just like the West. There are interests, a combination of interests; if these interests do not coincide, we should look for the reasons within ourselves, not outsiders.”
Referring to the statement of Dmitry Medvedev, vice-chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, former president, and former prime minister, regarding Pashinyan, our interlocutor continued. “Nikol Pashinyan has the future that awaits the failed leader of any country at any time. A failed boss needs to go, no matter what the reasons are. It will happen sooner or later, with the support of external forces or as a result of an internal uprising, but it is inevitable. Any leader who has failed in all areas will inevitably have to go. It depends on his sanity whether he will leave without a shock, possibly in a civilized way, or if he will leave by much more painful methods. In this sense, I have no doubts about Nikol Pashinyan’s future; he will leave, I’m afraid, he will leave rather painfully.”
As for the danger of a coup in Armenia by foreign forces, it is very likely for our interlocutor. “I consider it probable that some foreign forces will try to make a coup in Armenia, and some other foreign forces will interfere and try to prevent it. That is a tragedy because the Armenian-centric forces should have ruled in Armenia, and if the Armenian-centric forces either do not exist or are very passive, as a result, we have a struggle between different forces in the political field in Armenia.
Pro-Russians are fighting against pro-Westerners, Westerners are fighting against Russia, and the interests of Armenia are being pushed into the background. As a result, whichever of those poles wins, RA will serve as a tool for the interests of this or that pole of power.” At this stage, will the military operations continue on the RA border or not, according to our interlocutor? “I think that at this stage, the military actions unleashed by Azerbaijan will be limited only to Artsakh because the authorities of Artsakh have proposed a political dialogue with Azerbaijan. I assume that after the show of strength, Azerbaijan will try to present its tough demands during the negotiations, but at this stage, I do not think it will go to a confrontation with Armenia, although at some point, it is inevitable.”
Arpine SIMONYAN
