What will change when Pashinyan’s regime is finally overthrown? Turkey and Azerbaijan will not give up their primary goal, the plan to eliminate Armenian statehood in the South Caucasus. But they always had that plan, especially since 1991.
The question arises: how did it happen that until 2018, it was impossible to do this, but now is it possible?
Of course, there are various factors, among which, however, the ignorance and incompetence of the current government of Armenia plays a non-secondary role. If it were possible to avoid the disaster for 30 years, it would be possible to prevent the continuation of the disaster now.
Russia will not change its policy under the influence of the change of power in Armenia. In the foreseeable future, Russia will continue to support the mentioned projects of Turkey and Azerbaijan, keeping in its agenda the creation of some unit that is a member of the “union state” in the current territory of Armenia or a part of it. Of course, the new government should politely, without today’s hysterical exclamations, reject those aspirations.
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The position of the West will not change either. The USA and the EU will support the Armenian people in a “strong” or even “strongest” way at the level of statements; they will allocate money for emigrants, and maybe they will distribute “Nansen passports.”
But they will not do with Aliyev what they did with Slobodan Milosevic in the 1990s, although the leader of Azerbaijan probably deserves it more than the leader of former Yugoslavia. The new leader of Armenia should use the support of the West as effectively as possible, considering, I think, the rapprochement of relations with NATO and the EU. But it should be done without blindly throwing itself into the arms of the West, without changing its position every month.
In domestic life, I expect from the new leader, in particular, the liquidation of the “factory of fakes,” the cessation of hysterical and paranoid government propaganda, the direction of freed state funds to public solidarity, and the promotion of national values.
Expecting some saints or angels to come due to the next elections is pointless. But to expect that group of politicians to implement what will be written in their pre-election program is entirely legitimate.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
