In 1998, I interviewed our famous sociologist, Lyudmila Harutyunyan. One of my questions was: could World War III begin? The scientist’s answer was interesting: that War had already happened and ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
If the sociologist’s version is correct, then the 4th World War is going on now, where, in particular, Russia, the heir of the Soviet Union, which was defeated in the previous War, seeks revenge. (Just as Germany, dissatisfied with the “Versailles system” in the 1930s, sought to “rise from the knees”). This ongoing War will bring about as much tectonic change as the one that ended in the early 1990s.
Of course, there are certain features in this war; in particular, the role of technology, the virtual sphere, and propaganda has increased, which sometimes gives reason to use the “hybrid” adverb. But the “traditional” purely military component is also present. And, I’m afraid; everything will not end with the aggression of Azerbaijan (Turkey) and Russia, as well as with the clashes between “Hamas” and Israel.
We emerged victorious from the previous world cataclysms: we had an independent state and liberated Artsakh. Of course, there were many contributing factors. But the policy of the Armenian authorities at that time should not be underestimated either. Ter-Petrosyan and his team had correctly calculated what kind of world order would be created due to all the devastation and built a strategy on it.
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In today’s “turbulent” situation (if we don’t even call it a war), we lost Artsakh and put Armenian statehood in mortal danger. And let’s pay attention to the “local factor” again. First, if we make a bunch from what Pashinyan said in the last five years, we will notice a 180-degree position change. Secondly, today’s Armenian leadership calculates that Russia will either be destroyed entirely or fragmented or at least it will be weakened so much that it will not be able to deal with the South Caucasus. First, I’m not sure that this vision of a new world order is correct, although it’s clear that Putin’s policies are damaging that country greatly. But even if it is true, the vector change is not a matter of a few months. It requires long and delicate work and preferably without paranoid and hysterical manifestations.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
