Iranian prominent analytical and news website “Fararu” has published in Persian the interview of Nozhan Etezadosaltaneh – Iranian political analyst, PhD graduate in political philosophy from the Institute for Social and Cultural Studies in Tehran – with Narine Mkrtchyan, the President of the National Press Club and Lecturer at the Political Science Chair of Yerevan State University.
We present the English version of the interview, with Narine Mkrtchyan’s translation.
“The balance of powers in the region will inevitably change. The South Caucasus was always under the dominance of Russian influence and interests. Now it is not anymore, even Armenia has thrown off the Russian hegemony.
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Armenia should have entered the path of Western politics and civilisation a long time ago. We are 30 years late. The American factor will inevitably grow in the region. However, I am not sure if the RA government led by Nikol Pashinyan perceives that the role of the US will increase rapidly,” says Narine Mkrtchyan in the interview with Fararu.
Fararu: Upon entering Stepanakert, every traveller is attracted by the tranquillity of this small town, like the peace that flows throughout whole Armenia, like the name of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh that symbolises the independence of Armenia and means “vineyard”, inspired by the vineyards of that region. This was the history of that area. After the attack of the Azerbaijani armed forces in recent weeks in that area of Nagorno-Karabakh a trace of the vineyards no longer exists.
Today, Stepanakert is an empty depopulated city, following the forced displacement of more than 120,000 Armenians who were living in that area. Perhaps this poem by the famous Armenian contemporary poet Rouzan Hovasapyan can describe these days of Nagorno-Karabakh: “Homeland, Between the pages of your past and present, We should have put down a flower from the fields of Artsakh, Yet the flower lives of boys was put down…”
Narine Mkrtchyan is the President of the National Press Club and an experienced journalist, a socio-political analyst, who has a 30-year journalistic activity as her background in the sphere of political analysis and forecast. In the interview with Fararu, she touches upon the issue of the dissolution of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh in Stepanakert, in Nagorno-Karabakh, its impact and consequences on the present and future developments of Armenia.
Narine Mkrtchyan
Previously, she has worked as a journalist for prominent Armenian newspapers, including “Haykakan Zhamanak” (a newspaper of which Nikol Pashinyan, the current Prime Minister of Armenia, was the former chief editor), “Hayastani Hanrapetutyun,” and “Azg.” She has been a parliamentary reporter for many years. In 1999, Mkrtchyan ran for the Armenian Parliament. A book she has authored, entitled “The American Factor in the Processes of Supporting Democracy in Armenia and Georgia,” was published this year in Armenian. She is currently an Assistant Professor at the Faculty of International Relations at Yerevan State University.
Fararu – Despite the strong Armenian lobby in European countries, what do you think about the silence of most European countries regarding the developments in Artsakh? Was receiving gas and energy from Baku the main reason for silence?
Narine Mkrtchyan– This is an old European disease: to ignore the danger until it hits Europe. History reminds us that already in the 13th century, with the formation of the Ottoman Empire, the beginning of the Turkish invasions to Europe was set; in 1453 with the fall of Constantinople, the capital of Byzantium, the Turks conquered most of Europe. And only in the 17th century did the European political leaders begin to unite, forming an anti-Turkish alliance and were able to liberate the European territories by uniting in the war. In other words, Europe feels the danger rather late. Even now, the European Union does not fully feel the Azerbaijani-Turkish threat, not only towards Armenia, but also towards Europe itself. This is on the one hand. On the other hand, there are, of course, the political and economic interests of the EU, where Turkey and Azerbaijan have a certain place. However, the political interests of the EU and the European values should be compatible, and when those interests and European values are in conflict, then without hesitation the European values based on European humanism ought to be chosen.
Accordingly, the EU should review the gas deal with Azerbaijan in an accelerated procedure. Especially since the values of the genocidal and tyrannical state, Azerbaijan, and its leader Aliyev are the opposite of the European values.
The third factor is that the collective West is focused on the Russian-Ukrainian war and deems other issues, including the Artsakh conflict, less important. This is a fallacy, as in geopolitics everything is interconnected, and nothing happens without consequences.
The fourth circumstance is that Armenia, more precisely, the official Yerevan, has a serious share of fault in the delayed response or silence of Europe. The former and current leaders of Armenia have implemented a single-track pro-Russian policy and moved further away from Europe under Moscow’s compulsion, creating the impression that Russia was a strategic ally of Armenia against the West. Such circumstances played a significant role in Europe’s waiting and its delayed reaction. However, the Armenian people have a saying: “Better late than never”. Hopefully, the situation will change; unfortunately, that would happen after so many losses.
Fararu – Baku was able to score points in the war against Artsakh with the help of Israeli drones. Why didn’t Armenia strengthen its military position in terms of logistics, military technology and procurement of military equipment during the past years?
Narine Mkrtchyan– In 2010-2020, Azerbaijan bought a wide variety of drones, missiles and mortars from Israel and used them in the 2020 war. Along with Russia, Israel was the main supplier of weapons to Azerbaijan. According to Haaretz (March 2023), the number of flights by Azerbaijani airlines between Baku and Ovda Airbase, Israel’s only airport where explosives can be transported, had increased sharply in the months immediately preceding Azerbaijan’s attack on Artsakh in September 2020. The Israeli people should thoroughly analyse this and demand force a change of the policy towards Armenia.
In the recent years, Armenia’s problems have not only not decreased, but have also increased dramatically. The official Yerevan and a significant part of the Armenian public have for years considered Russia the guarantor of RA (Republic of Armenia) security, also citing the Armenian-Russian Treaty of 1997 (“Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Republic of Armenia and the Russian Federation”), although the realities proved that Russia was not only not a strategic ally of Armenia, but over the years has been turning into a strategic opponent. This behaviour of relying on a foreign state was also the reason why Armenia did not quickly and thoroughly upgrade its military equipment. Russia was delaying the purchase of weapons by Armenia, and Armenia also had certain restrictions on diversifying the purchase of weapons from other states. These issues had to be quickly resolved both before the war and especially after the war. Some steps may have been taken, but by and large, Nikol Pashinyan’s government has failed in strengthening the RA military.
Fararu – Why did Aliyev decide to attack Artsakh at this time? Did the war in Ukraine influence this decision, or was the decision taken at the behest of Turkey?
Narine Mkrtchyan– Not only of Turkey. Here, as in 2020, the Russian-Azerbaijani-Turkish conspiracy against Armenia was at play. The interests of this dangerous trio coincided in terms of partitioning Armenia and occupying Artsakh. We knew that Azerbaijan and Turkey are our enemies, but we considered Russia our friend and ally. In addition, Aliyev seems to think that Azerbaijan has won and can move forward unhindered, especially since he had Turkey’s cooperation and Russia’s betrayal of Armenia. One day, this delirious policy of Aliyev will end, as the pan-Turkish fallacies of Abulfaz Elchibey, the former President of Azerbaijan, ended, and we saw what his fate was.
Putin is a participant in the conspiracy against Armenia, if not the instigator. He demands complete subjugation from the former USSR republics, and as a result loses these states as partners and allies, earning the hatred of these nations. Putin wanted to implement this plan for Armenia and Artsakh back in 2016: at the time, it failed, and with time many people in Armenia began to understand that in the 2016 war, then in the 2020 war and in 2023 September the Azerbaijani attacks were provoked by Moscow. History repeats itself. By signing the Treaty of Moscow on 16 March 1921, Kemalist Turkey and Bolshevik Russia de facto divided between themselves the territory of the Republic of Armenia, and what Putin is doing today is not only against the interests of the Armenian people, but also against Russia itself. Russia irretrievably lost Armenia, even if its military bases do not leave Armenia.
Fararu – What social and economic consequences will the forced migration of Artsakh Armenians to Yerevan have for Yerevan? At the same time, we are witnessing the migration of Russian men fleeing from the war in Ukraine to Yerevan. Will their simultaneous migration with Artsakh Armenians cause a crisis in Armenia?
Narine Mkrtchyan – The people of Armenia showed such wonderful qualities during this mass displacement that we might not have discovered it in more peaceful times. Armenians give their houses fully to Artsakhi people to live there, they try to help in any way they can. I think the state itself is also doing its best. The people of Artsakh are our relatives, we are the children of the same nation, and everything is done to ensure that in Armenia they feel at home. Armenia is the homeland of all Armenians. There will be difficulties, of course, but they can be overcome. As the Armenian proverb says: “Our places are narrow, our hearts are wide.” Besides, I am hopeful that the people of Artsakh will still return to their homes. Today, they escaped genocide, and it is dangerous to return, but the time will come. Artsakh will not become a second Nakhijevan, where no Armenians are left. Azerbaijan’s goal was to depopulate the Armenian territory through genocide. The state of Azerbaijan was created artificially, at the expense of the territory of other nations. Their war was one of aggression. Look in history textbooks for the state of Azerbaijan before 1918 and you will not find it.
Fararu – With the situation created for Artsakh, do you consider it probable that Pashinyan and his party will lose in the next elections? To what extent does Kocharyan have a chance to succeed and win public votes? To what extent is the current opposition of Armenia able to attract popular votes?
Narine Mkrtchyan – It was always beneficial for Pashinyan that Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan remain his political opponents, as in that case Pashinyan’s chance to retain power was preserved, since the majority of the public rejected Kocharyan and Sargsyan. Nothing can be ruled out in politics, but Kocharyan’s return to power is almost impossible, and Pashinyan’s defeat in the elections is inevitable. Armenia has neither time nor resources to spend on bringing these figures to power or keeping them in power.
Fararu – Is there a possibility of guerilla and paramilitary rebellions of the Armenian forces in Artsakh against the Azerbaijani military in the future? (Similar to the 1990s).
Narine Mkrtchyan – Wars are directed by states.. The balance of power will change. That is why Baku is in a hurry. The Armenian people are peaceful people, but they are not afraid of war. The Armenian people will never come to terms with the loss of Artsakh, and Baku knows this very well.
Fararu – Do you think that Aliyev, with his pan-Turkic and ambitious goals, will go further and directly attack the territory of Armenia?
Narine Mkrtchyan – He can, indeed, attack, given his unbalanced and delirious behaviour. If the head of the state awards a high military rank to the murderer of the Azerbaijani soldier who axed a sleeping Armenian soldier in Hungary, it shows he has remained in the times of medieval brutality. To rule out war, the international deterrence mechanisms and security systems must be put into full force. If this is not done, the Armenian people have the right to defend themselves and their country..
Fararu – Can Armenia move away from Russia and get closer to the West, especially America? What are the possible obstacles in this path?
Narine Mkrtchyan – Putin drove a wedge between Armenia and Russia, and this wedge between the two countries is increasing. Nikol Pashinyan’s political path is very unclear and fluid. He neither has a clear political direction, nor is he able to manoeuvre. However, even the avid supporters of the slogan “forever with Russia” have lowered the Russian flags in Armenia. The balance of powers in the region will inevitably change. The South Caucasus was always under the dominance of Russian influence and interests. This is no longer the case. Even Armenia has thrown off the Russian hegemony.
Armenia should have entered the path of Western politics and civilisation a long time ago. We are 30 years late. The American factor will inevitably grow in the region. However, I am not sure if the RA government led by Nikol Pashinyan perceives that the role of the US will increase rapidly.
At the same time, Armenia should conduct a sovereign, independent policy, should acquire allies. Both the United States and the European Union should become important allies and partners of the Republic of Armenia.
Fararu – Do you think that Armenia’s military cooperation with America will have an impact on Iran’s relations with Armenia?
Narine Mkrtchyan – Each state is guided first and foremost by its national and state interests, which can also change. Armenia has always had special relations with Iran. Unfortunately, some recent statements of Iranian officials do not fit into the context of these special relations. Partnership relations are established over the years; Armenia and Iran have been building special relations for three decades. Ssuch statements seriously overshadow previous efforts. Tehran should keep in mind that what happened in Artsakh was a genocide, a a mass exodus from and depopulation of their homeland through starvation and siege. Of course, Iran can build its special relations with Azerbaijan, but if such relations are built at the expense of the misfortunes of Armenia and the Armenian people, then it jeopardises the cooperation between Tehran and Yerevan.
With the deepening of Armenian-American relations, Armenia is not building a wall against Iran; but it is better for authorities to exercise caution in their statements, especially since politics can be created through statements.
I sincerely hope that both Yerevan and Tehran realise that the political vocabulary in Armenian-Iranian relations should be chosen carefully.
Fararu – Will the announcement of a joint military exercise between Armenia and America change Putin’s calculations? Do you consider Putin’s attempt to create a coup in Armenia against Pashinyan’s government and even military intervention possible if Yerevan gets closer to the West?
Narine Mkrtchyan – Moscow’s convulsive reaction to the exercise was expected. It was always thought in Armenia that we should not anger Moscow. However, in politics one should not be guided by the presumption of insanity of the other side. As for the coup or the revolution, I guess that Moscow has tried that more than once. Although Nikol Pashinyan, like his predecessors, had turned Armenia into a satellite of Moscow, any attempt at independence causes convulsions in Moscow.
As much as Pashinyan’s tenure is unacceptable to me, I am against Moscow making a decision on behalf of the Armenian people and Kremlin implementing a change of power in Armenia. The formation and changing of the government is our, Armenian citizens’, right.
Interview conducted by Nozhan Etezadosaltaneh
