One more tripartite document under the auspices of Moscow and confidence in Pashinyan’s government in the West will decrease significantly.
The competition between Russia and the West has become protuberant in the context of the settlement of Armenia-Azerbaijan problems. Moscow-Baku relations have reached such a level that Armenia’s acceptance of another agreement under Moscow’s auspices will raise questions not only for our society but also for the West. One more tripartite document or agreement under Moscow’s auspices and confidence in Pashinyan’s government in the West will decrease significantly.
Russia and the West openly show interest in the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement process. The conflict of interest is becoming more and more intense.
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James O’Brien, Assistant Secretary Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs of the U.S. Department of State, was in Baku at the beginning of December; he met the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, then announced on the X social network that he had a “constructive discussion” with the President of Azerbaijan about the future of U.S.-Azerbaijan relations. He also noted that establishing a stable, dignified peace in the region will open historical opportunities.
The Azerbaijani side also reported on this meeting later, citing that Ilham Aliyev told James O’Brien that considering the new realities, Washington can contribute to the peace process. As a reminder, Aliyev criticized O’Brien for his thoughts on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue in the Congress hearings and declared that the Washington platform was no longer acceptable to him in the negotiations with Yerevan. However, he graciously received the American official and agreed to the American conditions. It is known that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expects to host Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov in Washington for peace negotiations.
It is noteworthy that one day after O’Brien visits Baku, the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan issued a joint statement stating that “The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan share the view that there is a historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace in the region. Two countries reconfirm their intention to normalize relations and to reach a peace treaty based on respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity”.
On December 7, Armenia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ararat Mirzoyan, received Louis Bono, the Senior Adviser for Caucasus Negotiations and the U.S. Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. The Armenian side responded positively to United States Secretary of State Blinken’s proposal for a meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington.
Both the West and Russia welcomed the Armenian-Azerbaijani statement. However, France, supporting the quick resumption of negotiations on a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, nevertheless stated that the EU and the USA should support it.
Azerbaijan’s attitude towards France, the leading player in the EU, is not a secret. Presenting France as a supporter of pro-Armenian policy, Aliyev discredits the friendly country that supports Armenia at any cost. Armenia needs to achieve support in its work with other E.U. states so that Azerbaijan faces new complications.
In addition, the Head of the European Union delegation in Armenia, Vassilis Maragos, recently told the “Liberty” that the European Union intends to develop specific proposals for supporting Armenia’s armed forces. For this purpose, Brussels will send a technical mission to Yerevan shortly. “There will be discussions later, but the European High Representative Josep Borrell has already committed to working in that direction. We are going to provide details in the coming weeks. We are preparing for the visit of a technical mission at the end of this year or the beginning of the year to develop specific proposals in the field of non-lethal support,” Maragos explained but did not specify what “non-lethal support” means and whether it includes the provision of defensive weapons assume.
Earlier, the delegation of the European Union announced that the E.U. will additionally study non-lethal support to Armenia’s armed forces through the European peace framework. “The European Union fully understands the interest of the Armenian society in developing Yerevan-Brussels cooperation in the military sphere; we also understand the concerns. That is why we want to play a role in the peace agenda. “Now we are working to develop cooperation through the European Peace Framework,” the E.U. Ambassador remarked.
Despite Azerbaijan’s tension, Armenia should not take a step back from the point of view of strengthening security and increasing defense capabilities, regardless of other possible agreements with Azerbaijan. It is necessary to take advantage of the ruling sentiments in the E.U., which favor the Armenian side at this stage. As a reminder, Brussels also decided to expand the observation mission in Armenia. On this occasion, the E.U. Ambassador said in the same interview that the E.U. has already agreed to further strengthen the observation mission’s capabilities. Maragos considered it necessary to emphasize that the observation mission gives concrete results to the border, easing the tension.
It is evident that the issue of protection of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia by the E.U. is quite strict, in contrast to Moscow, which shows complete indifference in this matter and proves by its actions that it expects Armenia to unblock regional communication channels by Moscow’s demands.
At the beginning of December, the Foreign Ministers of Russia and Azerbaijan again discussed regulating Armenian-Azerbaijani relations without the Armenian Foreign Minister. Only in the fall of this year did Bayramov and Lavrov have seven meetings and telephone conversations. After the Russian-Azerbaijani negotiations, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that “the need to increase efforts to normalize relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020-2022 has been confirmed based on tripartite agreements adopted at the highest level”. In his turn, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov noted that “the conditions have been created” for the agreement on the peace treaty. He also stated that Baku favors the activation of negotiations on border delimitation between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which is considered one of the directions of settlement.
As for the relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, the Russian Foreign Minister spoke again about the deepening alliance relations between Moscow and Baku, stressing that the two countries are now implementing several joint projects, and the trade and economic relations between the two countries are also actively developing. Lavrov noted that at the end of the year, Aliyev is expected to attend the informal summit of the CIS in St. Petersburg. Immediately after the Lavrov-Bayramov negotiations, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova reminded that Russia sent invitations to Armenia and Azerbaijan to meet on the issue of a peace agreement in Moscow or within the framework of events held in third countries. “Baku has always confirmed its willingness to hold negotiations. Unfortunately, we cannot say the same about our Armenian partners. Maybe they find that new consultants from Washington, Brussels, and Paris can make more interesting, better, and effective proposals.” Zakharova considered it necessary to add that the West always pursues its interests and never acts in favor of the interests of the peoples of other countries.
Russia, which, according to the assurances of the R.A. authorities, received several hundred million dollars but did not deliver the weapons to Armenia, mocks the French deliveries. The spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry stated no more, no less, that Paris sent useless weapons to Yerevan. As for why “ally” Russia does not fulfill its commitment to Armenia, Zakharova preferred not to answer the question, claiming that Moscow does not want others to mislead Armenia. “We do not want the so-called Western friends to deceive the people of Armenia. As far as France is concerned, these Bastion armored vehicles are non-liquid weapons.”
By not selling arms to Armenia and repeating the theses of lifting the blockade with Azerbaijani demands, official Moscow’s repeated warnings and threats to “not follow the West” are already daily. With such ridiculous demands, Moscow seems to prevent the Armenian society from asking Russia how 100,000 Artsakh residents were forced to leave their homes, their homeland, in a few days in front of Russian peacekeepers. Instead, one can continue to make absurd claims that the rights of forcibly displaced Artsakh residents were violated because of the West.
Emma GABRIELYAN
“Aravot” daily newspaper, 20.12.2023
The publication was produced within the project “Competing Narratives” implemented by Media Initiatives Center and n-ost.
