Many people in Armenia hold the belief that the 44-day war between Azerbaijan and Artsakh has concluded, and negotiations are in progress to finalize a peace agreement. However, the reality is that the 2020 war is not yet over. It can be asserted that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, which began in 1992, with its peak being the 44-day military confrontation in September, persists to this day.
Military operations could recommence at any moment since Azerbaijan has not achieved its ultimate objective. The president of Azerbaijan explicitly declares this goal: Nakhichevan and Azerbaijan must establish a land connection not controlled by Armenia through the Syunik territory. It also implies a land route between Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Primarily, this is Turkey’s strategy, declared over 100 years ago during Atatürk’s reign. At that time, Atatürk demanded Nakhichevan to join Azerbaijan from the Bolsheviks, leading to the historical struggle for Syunik. In the 1930s, Turkey exchanged territories with Iran to ensure a Turkey-Nakhichevan border of only 11 kilometers, anticipating steps toward the realization of Great Turan a century later.
As evident, this is a longstanding strategy, and both Turkey and Azerbaijan are unlikely to abandon it until facing strong opposition from geopolitical centers. In the post-1994 Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire negotiations, the territorial swap was discussed, referring to the “Meghri version.”
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However, in current talks, Azerbaijan demands territorial concessions without mentioning an exchange. The Civil Contract party has demonstrated its unpreparedness for such challenges, lacking both the acumen and will. Therefore, under the current government, advocating peace during wartime and conducting, at best, rudimentary foreign policy, we cannot avoid making further concessions.
The Armenian public must be well-informed about these developments and recognize that the aforementioned scenario is a global geopolitical project with supporters and opponents among superpowers. In this context, we must be honest with the public, clearly outlining the anticipated challenges, so that we can confront them with dignity to the best of our ability.
Avoiding reality will not yield any positive outcomes, and the situation will remain unchanged.
The Armenian Center for National and International Studies