Diversification, of course, can work in favor of Armenia, but to what extent Armenia has those real chances today is challenging, especially considering the rather harsh reactions from Russia
RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s participation in the session of the Eurasian Economic Council in St. Petersburg and the meeting of the leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in St. Petersburg within the framework of the informal pre-New Year’s summit was highly criticized. Against the background of this visit, various opinions were expressed by the expert community regarding Armenia’s departure from Russia and the policy of diversifying its foreign policy, even criticizing Nikol Pashinyan for returning to Russia.
To remind, after the session of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council in June, Nikol Pashinyan did not participate in the sessions of the EAEU and CIS intergovernmental councils in Bishkek in October; he also boycotted the session of the CSTO Council held in Minsk at the end of November. Meanwhile, he participated in the session of the Eurasian Economic Council in St. Petersburg.
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Is it a return to Russia, or should CSTO and EAEU not be confused?
Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Saint Petersburg is unacceptable for political scientist Stepan Grigoryan. According to Grigoryan Nikol Pashinyan, going to St. Petersburg does not mean we have ultimately returned to the Russian Federation. “But it significantly weakened the role of the West here. Although Nikol Pashinyan met with Aliyev in a hurry, often without due attention, Azeri experts comment that it was a regular meeting. Going to St. Petersburg shows that we have started to move again with Azerbaijani-Russian steps.
In a conversation with Aravot, political scientist Armen Vardanyan reminded us that Armenia did not boycott the EAEU. “The Republic of Armenia has boycotted the CSTO, and I am sure this boycott will continue; no need to confuse EAEU with CSTO. Boycotting the EAEU does not make sense at the moment. Let me say more: the West has no concerns about the EAEU.
Iranologist Armen Vardanyan
Our only problem is with the CSTO, at least now. Of course, there is a problem with the EAEU, but the most serious, obvious problem is with the CSTO. It has not fulfilled its contractual obligations towards RA, and announcing a demarche to the CSTO at this stage is generally in the interests of RA.”
Armenia boycotts the Russian platform for Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations, and how does Russia react?
On various occasions, the RA government has voiced that the Brussels and Washington platforms are more legitimate. On the occasion of the statements of Sargis Khandanyan, the chairman of the RA NA Foreign Relations Committee, that the negotiations with Baku on the platforms of Washington and Brussels “have an international reputation, and this gives them legitimacy,” the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said in her briefing held yesterday. “To please the West, it is not worth falling into extremes and absurdity. Several people who announce such things have lost their sense of proportion. It is not a question of our not being understood. That is not the only position we have seen; it is an essential issue for Armenia. At the highest level, establishing regional peace is a system of tripartite agreements between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Washington and Brussels either copied from the trilateral agreements of Armenia, Russia, and Azerbaijan or rewrote them to favor their conjuncture interests. What legitimacy can we talk about in the case of such pseudo-mediators”?
These statements of Maria Zakharova may indicate that RA refuses to negotiate on the Russian platform under the auspices of the Russian Federation.
We reminded Armen Vardanyan that the last meeting was perhaps under Russian auspices in Saint Petersburg when RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev met, he responded. “The meeting took place behind the scenes in the framework of the summit of the CIS countries in Saint Petersburg; they talked on their feet; it cannot be considered a negotiation.”
Diversification experience in the military sector
In one of his statements, RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently said that RA always wanted to get weapons from the West. Still, every time, they pointed out that we are a member of CSTO, a hostile organization for NATO and the West. Therefore, RA started announcing a demarche to the CSTO to acquire weapons from the West. There is already a comprehensive military-technical agreement with France. According to the experts, steps are being taken with some Western countries to acquire weapons.
During a joint press conference with Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan in Paris, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that the ministers signed an agreement on the sale of three Thales GM 200 radars, which France also provided to Ukraine, as well as a memorandum of understanding with the French ” Regarding the future delivery of the Mistral short-range air defense system. France will also help Armenia train its ground defense forces and support its efforts to reform and modernize its army.
According to political scientist Armen Vardanyan, the military-technical agreement signed with France is quite a severe document. “Some people try to underestimate it, but it is a serious document, which, in addition to arms sales, is also essential in terms of military training. France took on the issue of military training of officers. It is not accidental. They have already started learning French accelerated and intensively at the Air Defense Department of Yerevan Military University, named after Vazgen Sargsyan.
Diversification attempts also in the economic sphere
RA Economy Minister Vahan Kerobyan stated in one of his interviews. “Since Lars’s idea contains a particular risk, businessmen suffer certain yearly losses, we as a country and our companies as private businesses must get out of our comfort zone and work towards diversification, balancing risks, providing more comprehensive access to products, and building more competitive companies due to competition in more complex markets.
This statement is a statement of intention to diversify from an economic point of view. How viable it can be is another question. According to Armen Vardanyan, Russia has turned Lars into a political weapon. “Every time they try to put pressure on RA, they lock up Lars for several days.” According to him, RA is diversifying in all aspects: military and economic. In the future, they will also try energy and political elements. “Diversification should be carried out, and the influence of the Russian Federation on Armenia should be weakened so that Armenia weakens its dependence on the Russian Federation.”
Diversification, of course, can work in favor of Armenia, but to what extent Armenia has those real chances today is challenging, especially considering the rather harsh reactions from Russia. We can expect an increase in tension in Armenian-Russian relations, at least at the level of statements, taking into account the recent statements of the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova.
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
“Aravot” daily newspaper, 13.01.2024
The publication was produced within the project “Competing Narratives” implemented by Media Initiatives Center and n-ost.
