The EU is the largest provider of financial support for Armenia and its second largest trade partner. In 2023, the EU deepened its engagement with Yerevan, expanding its border monitoring mission and starting official discussions on the issue of visa liberalisation.
European Parliament elections will take place on June 6-9. It is expected that these elections will be one of the most controversial elections in the history of the European Parliament, considering the participation of far-right parties in the polls. There are predictions that nationalist parties will replace centrist forces.
It is still too early to make precise predictions about the outcome of the European Parliament elections. Still, it is a fact that profound shifts, rearrangements in political platforms, and changes in national and EU-level politics are expected. This fact is also substantiated by the fact that there are elections in 9 EU member states this year. In Austria, elections will occur after the European Parliament elections in the fall of 2024, and in Belgium, on the day of the European Parliament elections. For example, according to various forecasts, right-wing extremist parties may become the most influential in forming coalition governments in these countries.
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European Parliament elections and Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, the negotiation process
“Politico” considers 2024 “the year of anxiety in Europe” and makes the following prediction: “The elections of the European Parliament scheduled for June will not give anything for the populist majority. As Eurosceptic parties (in favor of maintaining the position of nation-states and their sovereignty and expressing concern that further integration may eliminate the idea of national autonomy of states) will make significant gains, the center will lose positions compared to the 2019 elections. The governing parties of France and Germany are likely to be weakened, which means that the positions of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron will weaken.
There are some predictions that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is a member of European People’s Party (EPP) will appear historically weakened in the European Council in the next term.
As a reminder, Ursula von der Leyen declared, “Azerbaijan is Europe’s reliable energy partner” in Bucharest, where Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania, and Hungary signed an agreement on strategic cooperation in renewable energy.
The President of the EU Council, Charles Michel, has announced that he will leave the mandate early and participate in the elections. He is one of the Western leaders whose involvement in the mediation mission in the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations has increased regularly in recent times. Through his mediation, a three-way meeting between Pashinyan-Michel-Aliyev took place in Brussels, and then a Pashinyan-Aliyev-Michel-Macron meeting took place in Prague. Olaf Scholz is also involved in mediation processes. A quadrilateral meeting was held in Granada in October 2023 in the Pashinyan-Macron-Scholz-Michel format. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev also planned to participate in this meeting, but he refused.
All this suggests that even if the EU’s foreign policy remains the same after the elections of the European Parliament regarding issues of concern to Armenia, the change of the essential actors of the Western mediating platform will lead to changes. It is also important here what the attitude will be in relations with the Russian Federation and the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, the role and mandate of the European Parliament should also be taken into account. It should be considered that it is the legislative body of the EU. As far as foreign policy issues are concerned, the European Parliament has a relatively weak role. It can, for example, express a general orientation, and individual MPs can make a political statement, but legally, the European Parliament cannot compel the Council of the EU to follow its instructions.
In a conversation with “Aravot,” political commentator and honorary President of the Yerevan Press Club, Boris Navasardian said that he does not think that the changes that are possible in many European countries, and that means in the European Parliament as well, can change the balance of power, directly affect the EU on the attitude of European governments towards RA”.
Boris Navasardian, President of the Yerevan Press Club
It is known that the relations between the EU and the Republic of Armenia are not a separate problem, but a part of complex problems, and it is essential here what kind of attitude the EU will have towards the Russian Federation and the Russian-Ukrainian war, in the context of which there is also the role of the Russian Federation in the post-Soviet area in general, including in the South Caucasus.
In our observation, there are high expectations from the EPP in some circles of RA. Since it is predicted that the EPP may give up its positions, and the question of whether this does not contain risks for RA, Boris Navasardian answered: “The EPP had a very neighborly attitude towards Armenia until 2018, because the EPP was close to the RPA, and even after 2018, we saw pretty close ties between the RPA, which has now become the opposition, and with his leaders. Today, we have a different situation than before 2018. These two circumstances, which I emphasized, make it difficult to predict what will happen. If we simplify the problem, on the one hand, the attitude towards RA will not be worse in case of the changes mentioned by the EU, but on the other hand, the ambitions of the EU to become a primary partner for RA and replace the Russian Federation in that role, the possibility of that may decrease if the nationalists take more severe positions. There needs to be more satisfaction with the political forces in the primary positions today. Still, it is too early to predict how much this will significantly impact the results of the elections.”
It remains only to watch what scenarios will develop until June. However, one thing is obvious: no matter what kind of European Parliament is formed, relations with Armenia will be considered regarding relations with Russia and calculations. Regarding RA becoming a primary partner for the EU, depending on the composition of the EU governing bodies, there may be an increase or decrease in the probability. Also, the role of the European Parliament, which is not so strong in the EU’s foreign policy, should be considered. The European Parliament can express a general orientation, but legally, the Parliament cannot compel the Council of the EU to follow its instructions.
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
“Aravot” daily, 19.01.2024
The publication was produced within the project “Competing Narratives” implemented by Media Initiatives Center and n-ost.
