Those who are interested in history know how military-political alliances are formed. They are based on purely pragmatic calculations, and religion, nationality, kinship ties, and value systems are unimportant. Christian kings or princes could fight against Christians, including their relatives, by allying with, say, pagans or Muslims. There may or may not have been external ideological “packaging,” but, I repeat, the main motive was the interests of the given state or government entity. King Hethum I of Cilician Armenia did not have any particular love for the Mongols, but he did form an alliance with that empire in the mid-13th century. Or, to give a more recent example, we can say with certainty that Stalin and Churchill did not have the same value system.
Now Armenia is facing a decisive choice: in which alliance will it be possible to ensure the security and territorial integrity of the state at the time of the inevitable new attack by Azerbaijan? Moreover, although “complementarianism,” “and-and,” and “diversification” are beautiful words, now they have no practical application. Those games are not possible today. Formally, we are currently members of the CSTO, which does not fulfill its assumed responsibilities. The latest example: CSTO again expressed its “concern” during the Nor Hand incident. I wonder if NATO would make such a statement if such an incident occurred on the Estonian-Russian border.
Can Armenia take such steps that will benefit the CSTO (Russia) to fulfill its ally duties? Of course, I don’t have the answer to that question. But if that option is chosen, it does not mean that we like a country that has attacked its neighbors, a country where political opponents are essentially killed in prison. All those emotions must be put aside. On the other hand, it may be possible to get the security guarantees of the West (USA). Should the price be to leave the CSTO? And by the way, it is not the case that the West has never “deceived” anyone. Moreover, something similar may happen to Ukraine.
Both of those options are possible, and neither of them is good. It is, as usual, a choice between bad and worst. Naturally, the government of Armenia should make the choice based on the information it has. But it is necessary to make that choice quickly before starting a new war.
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Aram ABRAHAMYAN
