There is a standpoint suggesting that Armenia is not vital for Russia. It is difficult to agree with this assertion. In general, the current global situation dictates that any country, regardless of its size, whether in Latin America, Africa, or an island state in the Pacific Ocean, can significantly alter the geopolitical landscape. In tense situations, even minor changes can escalate into major conflicts due to the imbalance of global power, geopolitical disruptions, and the ongoing competition among superpowers, sometimes escalating to the use of force.
Let’s attempt to comprehend the developments in our region from Russia’s perspective. Russia is likely to remain isolated from Europe for the foreseeable future; even maintaining connections with Kaliningrad presents challenges. The “window to Europe” established by Peter the Great through the Baltic Sea is gradually closing, evident in the significant decline in Russian cargo transportation via the Baltic Sea.
The fate of the Black Sea Fleet is also uncertain due to the conflict with Ukraine, and similar uncertainties loom over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles should Turkey’s government and foreign policy undergo significant changes, a plausible scenario.
Furthermore, Central Asia faces its own set of challenges, ranging from intense geopolitical rivalries to the growing activities of Islamist groups, often operating under various intelligence agencies’ patronage. Especially following the terrorist attack in Moscow, Central Asia could evolve into a region with a heightened terrorist threat.
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Turning to the South Caucasus, it represents a potential new gateway for Russia to connect with the global South. Essentially, Russia has little choice but to bolster economic ties with southern nations. The global South is witnessing an economic upsurge, and given the vulnerabilities of shipping routes through the Suez Strait, similar risks could emerge for the Malacca Strait tomorrow. Together, these routes facilitate over 40% of global shipping, underscoring the increasing significance of channels passing through the South Caucasus.
It is crucial to remember that in the 19th century, Russia intervened in the South Caucasus to safeguard its Black Sea shores from southern threats, vividly illustrated by the tumultuous Caucasian wars where Russia confronted Ottoman Turkey and Britain. Should Russia withdraw from our region, these historical challenges could resurface.
Therefore, Russia is likely to continue its efforts to maintain a presence in the region, and the unfolding geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus mark only the beginning of a complex global game.
ACNIS (The Armenian Center for National and International Studies)