The entry of the clergy of the Armenian Apostolic Church into the public arena has horrified the incumbent government, leading to a rapid decline in its ratings. The latest public opinion polls paint a bleak picture, not only for Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract party but also for other Armenian political parties, including the opposition. By and large, the political landscape is in ruins, and to be honest, this destruction did not begin in 2018. Moreover, if the political system had not already collapsed, the “velvet” revolution of 2018 would not have occurred.
The person occupying the seat of Prime Minister positioned himself above the party from the beginning, presenting himself as the leader of the citizens of Armenia, rather than a party figure. He chose to contest the 2018 National Assembly elections under the banner of the trans-party “My Step” alliance. This decision was strategically sound in terms of political technology and indicates that he has a competent group of experts, reportedly including some invited from outside. But let’s set that aside.
The regime has a different intention: to show that despite its decreasing approval ratings, the ruling political force does not have an opponent acceptable to the general public, making it expedient to wait until the elections in 2026. It is clear that even then, nothing would prevent the government from repeating this scenario. In any case, the ruling Civil Contract party would have a real chance to extend its power for at least two more years. However, as the saying goes, “Saturday came earlier than Friday.” On the day of the Armenian triple holiday, the government, represented by Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, Primate of the Tavush Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church, visited… “The Black Swan.”
Here is a brief reference. The term “black swan” was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor, writer, and former Wall Street trader. Taleb wrote about the idea of a black swan event in a 2007 book prior to the events of the 2008 financial crisis. He coined the term “Black Swan Events” to describe rare, unexpected events with significant consequences, such as scientific discoveries, historical and political events, and artistic and cultural achievements. Moreover, the “Black Swan” can explain not only negative events but also unpredictable successes.
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It is obvious that the regime’s propaganda is based on contrasts such as “black-white,” “past-present,” and “us-them.” To maintain their “seats,” the government uses this strategy to scare people with the specter of the return of the “formers,” suggesting “either we remain in power, or the old ones come back.” The appearance of the bishop burst that propaganda bubble. The spiritual leader of the Tavush Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church has never been a government figure; he criticized the former government before 2018 and is not involved in corruption schemes. Now, the regime is inventing a new propaganda trick, the core of which, according to their definition, is the “danger of religiosity” in the Republic of Armenia if the “Sacred Movement” succeeds.
In fact, we are discussing a classic “theocracy,” which implies having a state church, a religious populace, and a family of monarchs endowed with hereditary rights. For this to occur, the Constitution, government system, national traditions, and symbols would need to be changed. Additionally, the oath of loyalty to the monarch and his heirs would need to be implemented when accepting citizenship. This list covers only a small part of the required changes, not to mention the development of a school of theology, legal thought based on that theology, and other necessary components.
It is clear that the regime’s propaganda machine targets ordinary citizens, who mostly have superficial knowledge and can easily fall for this primitive bait. The fact remains that the “Black Swan” has appeared, and the regime’s propaganda machine has started firing into the air.
ACNIS (The Armenian Center for National and International Studies)