“What exactly happened in London is difficult to determine, but it is clear that the negotiation process is stalling with no significant developments,” said political commentator Armen Baghdasaryan in an interview with “Aravot”. He was referring to the RA Foreign Ministry’s statement that the Armenian side proposed a meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev in the UK, which the Azerbaijani side rejected.
Baghdasaryan pointed out that the absence of progress in the negotiation process became evident when the document on border demarcation, scheduled for July 1st, was not signed.
“It is apparent that something is amiss, and Azerbaijan is making new demands. Now, Azerbaijan is attempting to portray the Armenian side as obstructive. Azerbaijan will continue to exert pressure on Armenia in the propaganda arena, expecting even greater concessions. Additionally, the United States has clearly indicated that painful compromises are required from both parties. However, it appears that the focus is primarily on concessions from the Armenian side,” Baghdasaryan noted.
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Given the numerous concessions already made by Armenia, what new concessions could be possible? “The main demand from Azerbaijan is the opening of the Middle Corridor, specifically, communication channels through Armenian territory without Russian control. Armenia is generally not opposed to this but insists that the corridor should remain under Armenian sovereignty. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, insists on an extraterritorial corridor, free from Armenian control. This fundamental disagreement is a major obstacle to reaching an agreement. Armenia proposes that an international organization could oversee cargo and passenger transportation, but Azerbaijan considers this insufficient and demands that Armenia have no involvement in the corridor,” Baghdasaryan explained.
He further noted that for the West, particularly the US, there is less concern about who controls the communication channels. Their primary objective is to ensure that these channels are not under Russian control. “Thus, the pressure is mainly on Armenia, with some on Azerbaijan, to come to an agreement and open the corridor as soon as possible. This would likely result in Russia being pushed out of the region, at least in terms of controlling communications,” he added.
Baghdasaryan believes that a final peace agreement is unlikely at this stage. “There may be discussions about a framework agreement or initial signing, as mentioned in Azerbaijan. However, there is no prospect for a final peace agreement because Azerbaijan does not need it. They are setting serious preconditions and will likely continue to do so. The negotiation process is being used not to achieve peace but to extract further concessions from Armenia. Even if an agreement is signed, it remains uncertain whether it will lead to peace or potentially another conflict,” he concluded.
This means that they do not need that agreement, because they are using the negotiation process not to achieve peace, but in the process to extract new concessions from Armenia. After that, the question is: even if the agreement is signed, will it lead to peace or a new war,” he said.
Roza Hovhannisyan
