Those who think that the victory in the US presidential elections is already in Donald Trump’s pocket are probably in a hurry.
The peculiarity of the USA, as well as any other democratic country, is that the outcome of the elections is unpredictable. However, what will happen after the elections is more or less predictable. In countries like ours, it is exactly the opposite: it is clear from the beginning who will win the elections, but predicting the consequences is difficult. The first model provides certain stability, while the second case always carries a risk of destabilization.
Who the Democratic Party’s candidate is—Biden or Harris—is important, but not so important that the “nuclear” electorate of the Democrats (and we are talking about millions of people) will decide to change their minds in a few months. Regardless of the personality of the candidates, the Republicans are unlikely to succeed in, for example, California. Similarly, few believe that the Democrats will win in Ohio. The fight is centered on the “swing states.”
This is a system, whether natural or artificial, just or unjust (whatever those quite conventional terms might mean), but it is a system that ensures the changeability of power. In the largest European countries, France and Germany, the socialists and the center-right (under different names) replace each other, preventing the extreme right from coming to power—in this case, the “Le Penists” and the “alternatives.” By the way, it is not excluded that the far-right populists will achieve more significant successes in the coming years.
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There is no such system in Armenia; the current government always wins the elections. Even when a “change of power” occurs, elections only record the de facto existing situation. In 1998, de facto President Kocharyan won; in 2018, de facto Prime Minister Pashinyan won.
If we want to truly integrate with the West, instead of merely discussing these topics, we must create a political system that guarantees the changeability of the government.
Aram Abrahamyan
