When a high-level politician, especially a head of state, makes a statement, unless he is irrational, he wants all parties to hear it and bases his calculations on their reactions. Turkish President Erdoğan certainly strives to present himself to the world with a “macho” image, but this does not mean that he makes random and thoughtless statements. I think the threat to invade Israel following the examples of Artsakh and Libya is also well-considered. Another question is whether the threat is likely to come true.
Of course, the message is addressed to Israel, with which Turkey’s relations are in constant turmoil. By the way, it is not at all excluded that they will “reconcile” with each other again, as Turkey did with Russia after killing the ambassador of that country and shooting down the plane.. The statement is aimed at the Muslim world, where Erdogan has “leadership” ambitions. Paradoxically, it has now turned out that we are against Israel together with Turkey. It is no coincidence that Erdogan welcomed Armenia’s recognition of the Palestinian state. Many commentators in our country claim that it was a wisdome move. Honestly, I doubt it.
I am sure that the message is also directed at Azerbaijan. Perhaps certain manifestations of Aliyev’s behavior today give an opportunity to remind the “little brother” who really won the war of 2020. Azerbaijan made a hesitant attempt to refute this statement by Erdogan, citing an anonymous Ministry of Defense source (although it is clear that a political leader’s statement must be denied by another political leader). But contrary to that “embarrassed” source, Turkey’s support to Azerbaijan was not only political. The entire “operation” was led by Colonel-General of the Turkish army, Bakhtiyar Ersay. The management of UAVs, in particular, was carried out by Turkish and, as ironic as it sounds today, Israeli specialists. In today’s digitized, satellite-laden, globalized world, such things cannot be hidden.
What problems have arisen with the “peace process” (and indeed our capitulation) remain to be verified, but I have some considerations. One thing is clear: the Armenian government has no role in all this.
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Aram Abrahamyan
