In June of last year, a private military company called “Wagner” advanced through the Voronezh and Lipetsk regions and came within 200 kilometers of Moscow without encountering serious resistance from the Russian regular army. This unexpected turn of events left many puzzled.
Personally, I found it quite strange that a “private” army, led by a person with questionable criminal tendencies and comprised largely of amnestied convicts who had previously committed serious crimes, could operate so freely within the state. However, the greatest surprise was that Prigozhin’s armed group seemed more formidable than the Russian army, which has been officially regarded as the second most powerful in the world.
One explanation is that the military deliberately allowed “Wagner” to advance because they were dissatisfied with Putin and did not want to fight under the control of the KGB. This explanation persists even today, as the Ukrainian army has entered the Kursk region and occupied hundreds of square kilometers of territory.
If this somewhat conspiratorial explanation holds any truth, it still reflects poorly on Russia’s statehood. After all, the strength of a country lies in the harmony between its political and military components.
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But what if the Russian army isn’t as combat-capable as its official propaganda suggests? Yes, Russia has vast material and human resources. However, in today’s world, the organization, professionalism, and motivation of any structure, including the military, are crucial. In these respects, I believe the capabilities of Russia and Ukraine are not significantly different. Furthermore, modern Western weapons are likely more effective than Russian (Soviet-era) ones.
Thus, it is logical to predict that despite the “irreconcilable” statements from both sides, a compromise will eventually be reached. Ukraine is unlikely to trade the square kilometers of the Kursk region for all the territories occupied by the Russian Federation. However, in my opinion, the possibility of a ceasefire within the next six months is realistic.
Aram Abrahamyan
