Great powers, regional states, and countries like ours are constantly crafting scenarios that lead to certain consequences. However, these outcomes never fully align with any one player’s scenario, as the interests of all players cannot coincide 100 percent. For example, when the Soviet Union collapsed and we got the property of the 7th army of that collapsed state, and Azerbaijan got the property of the 4th army of the USSR (the latter, by the way, significantly exceeded the first in its number), hardly anyone, besides us, “script lines” that we will liberate Artsakh. To claim otherwise would be pure fatalism.
Let’s suppose that Russia, together with Turkey and Azerbaijan, orchestrated the scenario of the 44-day war, as Prime Minister Pashinyan recently hinted. I am inclined to agree. Did the Armenian leadership know about this in 2018-2020? If not, that’s troubling, as it would mean that diplomatic and other “unofficial channels” were not functioning. If they knew and did nothing, it’s still problematic, as the government’s foreign policy clearly failed to uncover or prevent this conspiracy.
It seems we have no leverage to prevent catastrophic scenarios. This is unfortunate, as the aforementioned trio appears to have “scripted” the opening of a “corridor” through our territory, one beyond our control. It’s also possible there are “scenarios” involving the return of 300,000 Azerbaijanis to “Western Azerbaijan” or the handover of “enclaves.” If the Armenian state cannot prevent the realization of such scenarios, then discussions about our sovereignty are, to put it mildly, misplaced.
Ah, yes, I almost forgot — apparently, this is what “the people” want.
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Aram Abrahamyan
