EVN Report. Azerbaijan’s state-sponsored hatred and animosity toward the Armenian people is well documented. It is a pattern that has persisted for decades and has become central to maintaining Aliyev’s regime. Recently, however, Aliyev and Azerbaijan’s state apparatus have expanded their hostile rhetoric to target the West—particularly Western institutions and groups. COP29 highlighted how Azerbaijan’s leadership is increasingly coupling its anti-Western messaging with its long-standing anti-Armenian narrative.
Two days before the start of the climate conference, on November 8, Aliyev delivered a speech rife with anti-Armenian rhetoric, direct threats, and criticism of the West.
Speaking at Victory Park—a site that glorifies the aggression against Nagorno-Karabakh and the subsequent forced displacement of its Armenian population—Aliyev referred to Armenians as “enemies” multiple times within his 20-minute address. He warned that Azerbaijan might take action, claiming, “When we see that Armenia and the forces behind it… are arming Armenia, we are forced to take the necessary steps.”
Aliyev also accused Western nations of stirring conflict in the region, alleging that “anti-Azerbaijan forces” in certain Western capitals, driven by “Islamophobia and Azerbaijanophobia,” were encouraging Armenia to provoke a new war. He suggested this would result in tragedy for Armenia, adding that Western powers were exploiting the situation to serve their own interests: “Certain states that consider themselves friends of Armenia are ready to sacrifice them, keeping the conflict alive in the South Caucasus and fostering more bloodshed.”
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Previously, I examined Aliyev’s baseless claim that the West seeks war in the South Caucasus—a narrative echoing Moscow’s rhetoric and gaining traction as a convenient pretext for future Azerbaijani aggression. This brings us to COP29, where Aliyev continued to target the West and Armenia, both in his remarks and through state-controlled media and propaganda channels. France, in particular, was a primary focus of his attacks.
In his opening address at the climate conference, Aliyev criticized what he referred to as “Western fake news media, so-called independent NGOs, and some politicians,” accusing them of double standards, hypocrisy, and political corruption. “Double standards, the habit of lecturing other countries, and political hypocrisy have become a kind of modus operandi for some politicians, state-controlled NGOs, and fake news media in some Western countries,” he said, while also using the platform to glorify Azerbaijan’s military “victory” over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020.
Aliyev’s rhetoric escalated when he accused European institutions and French President Emmanuel Macron’s government of complicity in violence. “The European Parliament and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, two institutions that have become symbols of political corruption, share responsibility with the government of President Macron for the killings of innocent people,” he declared—a bold and inflammatory statement delivered on a global stage.
The irony was striking. These words came from a leader who has institutionalized state-sponsored anti-Armenian hatred and venerated Ramil Safarov, who brutally murdered an Armenian officer in Budapest with an axe. This is the same Aliyev who launched the 2020 war against Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to the ethnic cleansing of its Armenian population, and who now oversees the systematic destruction of Armenian Christian heritage in the region in an effort to erase all traces of its Armenian identity.
Neither the Armenian authorities nor international actors—particularly Western nations—have taken decisive action beyond issuing statements. This allows Aliyev to avoid accountability for his actions in Nagorno-Karabakh and against the Armenian people, enabling him to manufacture new enemies, as sustaining conflict remains vital to the survival of his dictatorship.
At COP29, Azerbaijan’s primary target was U.S. Congressman Frank Pallone, who was part of the U.S. delegation and faced hostile treatment from Azerbaijani media and state-backed organizations. This targeting stemmed from his criticism of Aliyev’s regime and support for the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijani authorities barred him from attending a meeting with the delegation and Aliyev. At a subsequent joint press conference with Senator Markey in Washington, Pallone revealed that it was only thanks to the U.S. State Department’s efforts that he was protected from physical harm in Baku. Both Pallone and Markey had expressed initial optimism that COP29 would facilitate constructive dialogue with Azerbaijani officials and potentially advance peace with Armenia. However, President Aliyev’s actions ultimately disappointed these expectations.
In response to statements made by the U.S. officials upon their return to Washington, Hikmet Hajiyev, Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan, posted a message on his X page, suggesting that “Pallone might have suffered psychological and mental distress gazing out of his hotel window at the nearby Trophy Park, where the destroyed equipment of the invading army of Armenia is displayed, and the Victory Park, inaugurated by President Ilham Aliyev on November 8.” He also stated that President Ilham Aliyev did not meet with Pallone, asserting that the congressman “does not deserve such an audience.”
The tone and content of Hajiyev’s statement revealed the Azerbaijani state’s intolerance—if not outright hostility—toward criticism, while dismissing concerns about Azerbaijani political prisoners and the rights of the forcibly displaced Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh.
During a brief visit to Baku, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock became another target at COP29 when she addressed the arrests of climate and opposition activists in Azerbaijan. Baerbock stated that Germany advocates for the release of government critics and would raise this issue in her meeting with Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister, Jeyhun Bayramov. “As Germany’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, I want to say that the entry ban on 76 members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe is absolutely unacceptable,” Baerbock said, referring to the Azerbaijani ban on PACE members who had passed a resolution condemning Azerbaijan’s human rights record. In response, Aliyev’s assistant, Hajiyev posted on X, stating that it’s unacceptable for Germany’s Foreign Minister to level accusations against Azerbaijan, adding: “Mrs. Baerbock appears to have conflated Germany’s upcoming elections and domestic politics with extremely difficult multilateral diplomacy, likely attempting to use COP29 as a platform for her electoral campaign.”
Compared to the U.S. congressman, Baerbock initially received mild criticism from the Azerbaijani official. Yet both she and Pallone were later labeled as “sheitans”—meaning “devils”—on an Azerbaijani State TV program aired on November 24 that covered COP discussions. The program claimed that while Baerbock’s critical stance toward Azerbaijan might appear to stem from psychological distress due to her divorce, she was merely following Macron’s orders.
Through his inflammatory rhetoric and divisive policies, Aliyev successfully deterred many world leaders from attending COP29. Most European nations opted to send lower-ranking representatives, while prominent figures such as French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen were conspicuously absent. Instead, Aliyev’s circle at the summit included leaders like Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenko, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and several Central Asian heads of state. Notably, delegations from Caribbean and Pacific island nations were present—a participation Aliyev exploited to launch sharp criticisms against France and the Netherlands.
While the Azerbaijani leadership escalated its anti-Western rhetoric, Russia reaped significant advantages at COP29. Journalist Rasmus Canback observed that “Russia’s delegation, comprising 900 participants, is the third largest at the summit—after the host country, Azerbaijan, and next year’s host, Brazil. Compared to the delegation size at the 2023 summit, the Russian delegation has nearly doubled, raising questions about Moscow’s agenda at the event.” Canback’s investigation also revealed that Azerbaijan extended invitations to 25 high-profile Russian politicians, business figures, and journalists. The Russian presence was heavily bolstered by representatives from the fossil fuel industry: 26 Gazprom members (including executives and the vice president of Gazprombank), 12 Lukoil representatives (including two vice presidents), and 42 additional individuals linked to Russia’s energy sector.
COP29 also served as a platform for high-level negotiations between Moscow and Baku and other interested parties. In August, Gazprom and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) agreed to expand their strategic partnership. According to The Telegraph, “Talks are underway that would see its state energy company, SOCAR, step in as a middleman when the transit deal ends. Under the proposed scheme – one of several being considered––gas from Gazprom, Moscow’s gas giant, would be rebranded as Azerbaijani, with equivalent volumes of Baku’s gas labeled as Russian. The scheme would mean that European companies could sign contracts with Azerbaijan for Russian gas, but wouldn’t have to deal with Russians.”
In 2022, as gas talks between the EU and Azerbaijan intensified, it became clear that Azerbaijan would not be able to solve Europe’s gas problems. Europe has been trying to reduce its dependence on Russia by yielding to Azerbaijan’s demands. Yet Aliyev needs Russian gas to fulfill his obligations to the EU. To increase its exports to Europe, Azerbaijan has significantly increased its own fossil fuel imports from Russia.
“Europeans see Azerbaijan as an alternative to Russia, but buying energy from Azerbaijan means buying energy from Russia,” said Zhala Bayramova, an Azerbaijani dissident who was awarded the prestigious Magnitsky Human Rights Award for her activism, in an interview with POLITICO.
A very recent report by Crude Accountability, titled “Western Complicity and COP29: Azerbaijan’s Authoritarian Petro-Regime Propped Up and Greenwashed by Western Investments”, examines the connections between Western investments in Azerbaijan’s extractive industries and the country’s declining human rights situation. The report notes: “In the case of Azerbaijan, however, the EU appears conflicted. On the one hand, the European Parliament has condemned Azerbaijan, has spoken on behalf of those arbitrarily detained, and made the decision to suspend Azerbaijan from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. On the other hand, the EU invests billions into Azerbaijan by relying on Azerbaijani fossil fuels and investing in the Middle Corridor project, which would tie the EU and Azerbaijan even closer together and increase exports from Azerbaijan to the EU. In this case, there is clear hypocrisy from Azerbaijan’s top trade partner; a hypocrisy one would have thought the EU would have learned not to repeat after its decades-long relationship with Russian fossil fuels came tumbling down.”
Amid these contradictory developments, one key pattern stands out: Aliyev consistently positions the West as the scapegoat for any future acts of aggression. Following COP29, Azerbaijani state-controlled media launched a fresh wave of baseless claims alleging that Armenia is preparing for war against Azerbaijan.
State-affiliated websites like Caliber.az, linked to Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense, amplified this narrative, asserting: “All of this clearly indicates that Armenia is actively preparing for a new war with Azerbaijan, naturally with the support of its foreign patrons. In this context, the ‘binocular’ provocation by Polish President Andrzej Duda along the conditional border seems far from accidental. Poland, as one of Russia’s main European opponents, has a vested interest in creating conflicts along the perimeter of the Russian Federation to divert Moscow’s attention from the war in Ukraine and, more broadly, to disperse its forces. One of the ‘hot spots’ that Warsaw aims to create is between Azerbaijan and Armenia.”
Similarly, Trend.az, another government-linked outlet, claimed: “Armenia’s preparation for a new war against Azerbaijan poses a serious threat to peace and stability in the region. This is not only an attempt to cover up Armenia’s internal problems but also a provocative plan that serves the geopolitical interests of the West, especially France.” The repetition of identical language and accusations across multiple Azerbaijani outlets underscores a coordinated state propaganda effort.
Aliyev himself reinforced this narrative in a recent speech, once again invoking his regime’s expansionist vision by referring to Armenia as “Western Azerbaijan.” He declared: “Azerbaijanis living in Western Azerbaijan, within the territory of present-day Armenia, were subjected to ethnic cleansing and forcibly expelled from their historical homeland in stages…” This dangerous rhetoric not only perpetuates hostility but also reveals Aliyev’s broader territorial ambitions. By framing Armenia as a perpetual adversary and leveraging fabricated threats, he continues to cultivate external enemies—a strategy essential to sustaining his authoritarian regime. However, his ambitions appear to stretch well beyond Armenia’s borders, signaling a much wider agenda.
The regime continues to imprison its remaining critics. Following COP29’s conclusion, Azerbaijan launched another crackdown, this time targeting journalists from the independent Meydan TV. The detained staff members were arrested for smuggling foreign currency. Pro-regime Baku.TV aired a program about the detentions, claiming the West sought to destabilize Azerbaijan by replicating “the Georgian scenario”. The program also accused the detainees of Armenian connections. This familiar narrative combines allegations of Armenian ties and Western interference, to frame the situation as treason.
Throughout COP29—before, during and after—Azerbaijan’s regime maintained its anti-Western rhetoric while accusing Armenia of collaboration with the West. The relentless war propaganda and unfounded accusations against Armenia and EU member states suggest that Aliyev is testing limits, potentially laying the groundwork for another provocation or military operation.
Aliyev’s refusal to sign a peace treaty, suppression of reconciliation or peace discourse within Azerbaijani society, and insistence on preconditions reveal his dependency on external enemies to consolidate power—a hallmark of authoritarian regimes. In this context, he has increasingly cast the EU, or certain Western entities, not only as adversaries but as scapegoats for potential future aggression. This growing threat demands serious attention and preventive action, as averting a crisis is far less costly than dealing with its aftermath.
Tatevik Hayrapetyan