ACNIS. The recent events in the Syrian Arab Republic, commonly referred to as the Syrian conflict of 2024, demand diligent research to compile comprehensive facts, draw logical conclusions, and illuminate the circumstances surrounding them. Nevertheless, certain preliminary conclusions can already be drawn, particularly regarding the impact of the Syrian situation on the South Caucasus, especially Armenia.
It is worth noting that the challenges faced by Syria are not new. Like many countries in the Middle East, it has long been plagued by persistent intra-societal conflicts among various ethnic and religious groups. These conflicts have only intensified over time. The geopolitical struggle for control over Syria—marked by the involvement of Russia, Iran, and other interested states—has served as a deterrent to further instability. Without this external involvement, the events of December might have occurred much earlier. Additionally, the Iraqi government has little interest in Syria’s destabilization, as it faces its own ongoing threats from groups like the Islamic State.
Our primary concern, however, lies in the potential ripple effects of the Syrian conflict on the South Caucasus, including Armenia. During the 44-day war, we witnessed the ramifications of earlier events such as the “Arab Spring” and the civil conflicts in Syria, which significantly altered the “status quo” in our region. In the Artsakh war, foreign support for our adversaries was evident—ranging from Israeli weapons and specialists to British-coordinated intelligence, Pakistan’s supply of arms and militants, and, most prominently, Turkey’s direct management of the Azerbaijani military.
Continued, unpredictable shifts in the Middle East are bound to have consequences for the South Caucasus. Moreover, such changes risk dragging the region into military confrontations, transforming it into a theater of geopolitical clashes. Unlike the Middle East, warfare in the Caucasus could escalate into violent, large-scale conflicts, potentially drawing in global superpowers. One can only hope it never comes to that. For now, let us return to the Syrian conflict, which, it seems, is far from over.
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There are claims that Russia’s role in Syria was limited due to alleged Trump-Putin collusion. While this remains an unsubstantiated hypothesis, it has been analyzed by regional experts. According to them, the conflict stemmed primarily from the complete failure of the Syrian regime. Bashar al-Assad was unable to fulfill his promised reforms, particularly within the military. He failed to engage honestly with the public, utilize the experience and capabilities of his forces, or establish a new political framework. Ultimately, his leadership faltered, leaving him unable to face the people—his deceit had run its course.
Does this remind us of someone? Indeed, Assad’s predicament mirrors that of Pashinyan, albeit in reverse or complementary forms. Regardless, God forbid Armenia continues to face such instability. It is not difficult to predict the fate of a government led by someone who fails to grasp the realities around it. When leadership is disconnected from the situation, tragic consequences are inevitable. Over the past six and a half years, we have witnessed and felt the fallout of such a misunderstanding. The incumbent Civil Contract regime lacks the capacity to neutralize threats. Instead, it has inadvertently facilitated them. How much longer can we remain silent?
The Armenian Center for National and International Studies