On January 14, the US officially upgraded its relations with Armenia to a “strategic partnership. “We are establishing our US-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission,” outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced before signing the commission’s charter with the Armenian foreign minister. This document was signed just days before President Donald Trump took office, marking a milestone in US-Armenia relations under the Biden administration. Let’s clarify the nature of this partnership and the implementation scenarios for the charter.
Firstly, it’s crucial to differentiate between a strategic ally and a strategic partner; Armenia and the US are not strategic allies. The status conferred to Armenia by this document should be viewed with appropriate caution. Its signing was coordinated with the Trump administration’s transitional team, meaning this is an intergovernmental document, not one between the Biden administration and Armenia. Thus, it should not be considered an achievement of only the Biden/Pashinyan administrations. If presented as such, the Trump administration will likely respond, “Go ahead and implement it with Biden.”
The signing of this charter was made possible by several factors, including the groundwork laid in the 1990s when Armenia signed numerous agreements with the US and during Levon Ter-Petrosian’s 1994 visit, where a memorandum was signed between Vazgen Sargsyan and US Secretary of Defense William J. Perry. Armenia’s active role in combating international terrorism and its participation in peacekeeping missions under the Kocharyan administration during the 2000s was emphasized by then-Defense Minister Serzh Sargsyan in a National Assembly speech about joining the international anti-terrorism coalition. Also, Armenia deepened its relations with NATO and the US during the 2010s under the Sargsyan administration, achieving significant milestones in bilateral ties. This agreement therefore is the result of the efforts of the Ter-Petrosian-Clinton, Kocharyan-Bush, and Obama-Sargsyan administrations, culminating during the Biden and Pashinyan administrations.
Again, it is important to clarify that a strategic partnership is not the same as a strategic alliance like those between the US and Israel or the UK. The US will not offer Armenia security guarantees, military assistance, or arms supplies. This arrangement does not include the establishment of US military bases or personnel in Armenia. Security support entails advisory programs, military engagement activities, professional military education through the International Military Education and Training program, and maintenance of the partnership with the Kansas National Guard.
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Additionally, there will be financial and technical assistance for the economy, reforms, human rights, and social programs. There is also interest in deploying American small modular nuclear reactors in Armenia. As for combating ISIS, Armenia remains committed to the anti-terrorism coalition initiated after 9/11, participating in the fight against terror and now the campaign to defeat ISIS. The strengthening of ties between the Kansas National Guard and Armenia’s Ministry of Defense builds on the cooperation established in 2003.
The next question concerns the implementation of this document, which appears challenging given the incoming administration. The Trump team must begin from scratch and appoint commission members accordingly. The document requires further development based on its principles. However, it is evident that the US does not plan to offer Armenia security guarantees, weapons, ammunition, or military equipment. American troops will not be deployed at the border; instead, experts will provide guidance on enhancing border security.
It is crucial not to overrate or undervalue the status bestowed by the US, as it can provide a strong basis for reforms. Armenia’s authorities should fully leverage the opportunities this status offers. Additionally, it’s important to recognize that this status can be revoked; Georgia lost its strategic partner status just a few months ago after its elections. Regardless, a valuable opportunity should be used to promote economic agenda priorities.