Annual Report on External Security Risks of the Republic of Armenia
“2024 was marked by frequency of bilateral high-level meetings, contacts and written communication, mainly touching upon the normalization of relations, the text of the peace agreement, border demarcation and delimitation, unblocking of infrastructure, humanitarian and other issues. In 2025, it is highly likely that bilateral formats of negotiations around various issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan will remain the most effective of the ones used by the parties before.
Based on the analysis of various facts, information and phenomena, at the time of publishing of this report, the likelihood of a large-scale attack on Armenia by the Azerbaijani side is not assessed as high. Meanwhile, in the absence of a peace agreement and interstate relations, the risk of local tensions and escalation on the border will remain a part of Azerbaijan’s policy of the threat of use of force. A potential guarantee for addressing this risk can be the smooth continuation of the delimitation and demarcation process, started in 2024.
In this context, the task of our Service is to continuously assess whether Azerbaijan’s consistent development and financing of various harmful narratives against the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia aim to “legitimize” its intention to use force against Armenia. Among those narratives are so-called “Western Azerbaijan and Western Azerbaijanis”, “Armenia’s militarization”, “revanchism” and the “Zangezur corridor”.
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The full report