A few days before the scheduled opening of the Munich Security Conference on February 14, the organizers, as per tradition, published a report assessing global geopolitical trends. This year’s key theme revolves around the concept of a “multipolarized world,” a term that blends multipolarity and polarization. According to the report, the gradual retreat of the United States from its role as the global hegemon is leading to the emergence of new centers of power. However, this shift is also deepening divisions and making it increasingly difficult to coordinate responses to global crises.
The authors argue that Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election shattered the post-Cold War foreign policy consensus that positioned Washington as the primary guarantor of international stability. The Trump administration viewed this role as a “bad deal,” believing that the U.S. had enriched other nations while its own economic and political power had declined. This perspective led to a more selective approach to alliances, prioritizing only those relationships that served direct national interests.
The report highlights that U.S. foreign policy under Trump will likely be centered on containing China. The ongoing trade war between the two nations is expected to intensify, worsening bilateral tensions and complicating Washington’s coordination with European allies. More significantly, the Trump administration may reduce America’s role in ensuring Europe’s security, shifting more defense responsibilities onto its European partners. Given the slow pace of European rearmament and its continued dependence on U.S. military capabilities, such a shift could create a “security vacuum” with potentially severe consequences for Ukraine, whose survival as a sovereign state depends heavily on Western military and political support.
China is identified as the primary strategic competitor to the United States, leveraging its growing economic and military strength to challenge U.S. dominance. While Beijing promotes the narrative of an emerging multipolar world, the report’s authors argue that these claims primarily serve China’s geopolitical ambitions rather than the interests of the countries it claims to support. Despite China’s increasing influence, internal challenges and mounting resistance from global powers may limit its expansion. However, if Trump distances the U.S. from traditional alliances, China may find it easier to solidify its position by framing Washington as a destabilizing force in global affairs.
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Russia plays a distinct role in these geopolitical shifts, driven by historical ambitions and constrained by limited resources. According to the report, Moscow seeks to redefine multipolarity by promoting a vision in which global order is shaped not by individual states but by “civilizational poles”—large regional entities with deep historical and cultural ties. This framework implies that only powerful “civilizational states” can exercise full sovereignty, while smaller nations are relegated to their spheres of influence. The report notes that Russia perceives Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries as part of its geopolitical domain, a stance reminiscent of 19th-century European power politics rather than a truly inclusive multipolar world order.
While Russia projects itself as a global power, the report underscores the gap between its ambitions and actual capabilities. Nevertheless, Moscow has effectively leveraged its available resources, shifting the dynamics of the war in Ukraine in 2024 by expanding territorial control and significantly increasing defense production. At the same time, Russia has managed to avoid full diplomatic and economic isolation, maintaining strategic partnerships worldwide. This has reinforced its image as a resilient power willing to challenge stronger adversaries.
However, the report also highlights Russia’s growing constraints. The ongoing war in Ukraine is straining its resources, limiting its ability to project influence elsewhere. Moscow was unable to prevent the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria or provide military or diplomatic support to Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. These setbacks indicate that Russia is facing “imperial overstretch,” which could weaken its ability to sustain its long-term geopolitical ambitions.
Despite these challenges, Russia may still have an opportunity to end the war in Ukraine on terms favorable to itself if Kyiv’s Western allies prioritize ending the conflict over achieving a decisive Ukrainian victory. Under such circumstances, Moscow could retain control over occupied territories, block Ukraine’s NATO accession, and prevent Kyiv from securing meaningful security guarantees. However, the report notes that Washington’s stance on Russia remains uncertain. If a second Trump administration adopts a tougher approach than anticipated, Russia’s outlook could darken considerably.
Arman Babajanyan,
chairman of the “For the Republic” party