“The U.S. has two reasons to end the war in Ukraine.”
Benjamin Poghosyan, a senior expert at the Armenian Applied Policy Research Institute (APRI Armenia), said in an interview with Aravot.am.
“The first reason is that the U.S. needs to reduce resources and expenses in Ukraine and Europe to focus on the Pacific region. The second is that the U.S. wants to prevent the strengthening of ties between Russia and China.”
According to Poghosyan, Washington will try to reach a resolution as soon as possible, but the parties to the conflict have different positions and expectations.
Russia demands recognition of the territories under its control as part of Russia and the lifting of sanctions. The U.S. might meet some of Russia’s demands in exchange for a ceasefire to prevent an intensified Russia-China cooperation, explains the expert.
Poghosyan also emphasized, “Russia wants to see a European security architecture where the U.S.’s role will not be dominant,” and continued, “Russia desires more involvement in the European security architecture.”
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Regarding the timeline for the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, Poghosyan stated that it depends on the negotiations.
“In any case, it won’t be quick, and until then, the intense war will continue.”
Possible Collapse of the Ukrainian Front in Summer or Fall
We asked Benjamin Poghosyan whether Ukrainian forces could withstand Russia with solely European aid if the U.S. stops providing support.
Poghosyan explained, “U.S. support mainly comes in the form of weapons supply, whereas Europe helps financially. If the U.S. no longer provides weapons, Europe could buy arms from the U.S. and provide them to Ukraine. However, in that case, Ukraine could withstand Russian forces for at most six to nine months, after which the Ukrainian front could collapse. We might witness this in the fall of 2025.”
“If Russian forces advance a few kilometers in a week today, they could advance ten to twenty kilometers in a day and capture major cities, such as Kharkiv or Dnipro,” added the APRI Armenia expert.
What Should Armenia Do to Avoid Harm?
We also asked how logical is the thesis, circulating in Armenian non-expert circles, that the United States-Russia cooperation will negatively impact Armenia.
According to Poghosyan, with the resolution of the conflict, Russia’s resources, including in the South Caucasus, will expand.
“In the summer or fall of 2025, Russia will have more resources to protect its interests,” he stressed.
“This can be both beneficial and harmful for us. Armenia must prepare for this change. A lot depends on the political actions and steps taken by Armenia. If we declare that ‘Russia is a barbaric, dictatorial state from which Armenia must distance itself,’ we will suffer harm. Returning to the previous Armenia-Russia relations is impossible, but if we adapt to these changes, prevent further deterioration of Armenia-Russia relations, and form a new status quo with Russia, we will be able to reap benefits,” said the senior expert from APRI Armenia.
Arsen AIVAZIAN
