In 1944, while World War II was still raging but the division of the world was already underway, a remarkable exchange took place between Stalin and Churchill. The topic was Poland, which was almost certain to fall under Soviet control. The British Prime Minister felt compelled to remind Stalin that Poland was a Catholic country and that its internal developments should not create tensions with the Vatican. To this, Stalin reportedly responded, “And how many divisions does the Pope have?”
This episode is often interpreted as Stalin mocking both Churchill and the Pope, dismissing the Vatican’s influence in realpolitik. However, I doubt Stalin viewed power in such simplistic terms. By that point in the war, he had begun to recognize the importance of religion and the Church—after all, Soviet propaganda referred to the war as a “sacred” struggle.
Yet, even with this nuance, Stalin’s question remains relevant. Today’s events prove it. After his public spat with Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky received vocal support from European leaders. But this support is mostly symbolic. British officials told the Financial Times that Prime Minister Starmer advised Zelensky to first mend relations with Trump, since any lasting peace would require U.S. guarantees. French President Macron echoed the same sentiment. Translated from diplomatic language, this means: “We respect you, but Trump holds the real power—you need to negotiate with him.”
Unlike Europe, the South Caucasus is of little interest to Trump. As a result, the region will likely fall under the influence of the Russian-Turkish alliance, with only minimal oversight from the U.S. Under these circumstances, some in Armenia may hope for greater EU involvement. But the question remains: how many divisions does the EU have? It is still merely considering the creation of a unified armed force. The sooner it materializes, the better—but for now, our priority must be managing relations with the powers that do have divisions: Russia and Turkey. No matter how unpalatable their policies may be.
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Aram ABRAHAMYAN
