“ACNIS ReView from Yerevan”. It is evident that Azerbaijan, under the leadership of Ilham Aliyev, has no intention of signing the mutually agreed-upon document on peace and the establishment of interstate relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The reason extends beyond the “mandatory” additional preconditions set forth by Aliyev. The Baku dictator is clearly aiming for a new war, something he cannot openly announce. In his calculations, a war would yield far greater rewards than any agreement and its attached preconditions combined.
The leader of the neighboring aggressor state is actively laying the groundwork for launching new military operations against the Republic of Armenia. His goal is to intimidate his capitulated adversary, at the very least, with the fear of war in order to extract maximum concessions. The so-called “peace treaty” is fundamentally unappealing to Aliyev. He has no desire to take on additional obligations when he can exploit the opportunity to extract unilateral concessions from Armenia’s spineless leadership without undue complications. War—or even its looming threat—will simply expedite the process he desires.
Numerous comments and pieces of evidence have been posted on social media regarding shootings near Armenian villages by the Azerbaijani border, which come on the heels of a general increase in tensions and rhetoric from Azerbaijan about alleged Armenian ceasefire violations. Over the past week, Baku has disseminated more than 10 false official statements, claiming that the Armenian side shelled Azerbaijani positions and peaceful settlements or mobilized armed forces in certain border areas. These allegations are far from coincidental. “This is already the 13th instance in just a few days where Azerbaijan has claimed that Armenian forces opened fire on its positions. It’s a blatant lie. Just like in 2020, Baku is manufacturing pretexts to attack Armenians again, claiming that they don’t want peace,” wrote French journalist Jean-Christophe Buisson, deputy director of Le Figaro Magazine, on his X (formerly Twitter) account.
Azerbaijan is also attempting to shift the blame onto Armenia for the delay in signing the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace “paper,” which has allegedly been ready for signing since March 13. Employing the same tactics as on the border, Azerbaijan simultaneously fires on Armenian positions while accusing Armenia of shelling their territories and settlements. By spreading misinformation, Baku appears to be laying the groundwork to postpone the peace treaty’s signing. During the 12th Baku Global Forum, which brought together over 50 senior officials, policymakers, and experts to discuss global security under the theme “Rethinking World Order: Turning Challenges into Opportunities,” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev did not miss the opportunity to belittle Armenia and its authorities once again.
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Aliyev, in particular, stated: “The level of trust towards Armenia is close to zero… we don’t trust their word because these are not the people we can trust, including today’s government… We need their Constitution to contain no territorial claims against Azerbaijan… We need the OSCE Minsk Group to be dissolved.” Such a statement does not reflect the discourse one would expect from a leader genuinely seeking peace with a neighboring country. Instead, the monarch of Absheron appears to speak of war far more frequently than peace. In fact, he never seems to speak of peace at all.
Aliyev and peace seem inherently incompatible, as his actions and rhetoric reveal a warmongering and aggressive nature. His preference for conflict allows him to achieve his goals by intimidating weaker souls, such as Nikol. The current situation exemplifies this dynamic. While Pashinyan pleads with a dishonorable adversary for a symbolic piece of paper called “peace” to salvage his political standing, Aliyev simultaneously wages economic, diplomatic, psychological, and propaganda-driven attacks against Armenians. He mocks a worthless leader who has failed to grasp a fundamental truth: the strong will never ratify a dignified treaty with the weak.
The Armenian Center for National and International Studies