Women in tiger-striped outfits may worship either Pashinyan or the “anti-Pashinyans,” but that kind of loyalty won’t bring about real, radical change.
After the Gyumri elections, I think it has finally become clear: neither the Civil Contract party (CP) alone, nor even in alliance with its proxies—the so-called “Europeanists”—can be legitimately reproduced in power. More specifically, in the next parliamentary elections, CP is unlikely to secure the 50+1 majority.
That doesn’t mean it won’t try to hold on to power by other means. The Yerevan and especially Gyumri city council elections made one thing plain: CP has no qualms about returning to the “old, tested” tricks of the past. And in some areas, things are getting even worse. For example, before the “sworn democrats” came to power, no one would have imagined citizens being summoned to the Investigative Committee for merely “liking” a Facebook post. So yes, the process of “further democratization” continues—conveniently accompanied by glowing reports from European observers.
To put it briefly: CP may have managed to manipulate elections once or twice, but historically, the party and its leader are finished. Decades of political experience show us this. So what happens next?
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To answer that, we first need to ask: who was and is demonstrating real civic activism in Armenia? Or more specifically, who was the driving force behind the 2018 revolution? (Let’s not waste time debating whether it was truly a “revolution.”)
I am convinced it was the educated, progressive youth—those who believed Armenia was finally turning toward a truly European, truly Western path.
Today, most of them are no longer active. Why? Because they’ve been deeply disappointed. And not just because of the war.
They came out into the streets in 2018 because they wanted fair elections. They wanted a government that wasn’t built on personal enrichment. They wanted to end the era of powerful relatives becoming “successful businessmen.” They believed power should be balanced, that torture in police stations should stop, and that sycophancy should become a source of shame—not a path to promotion.
To put it mildly, their expectations were not met. Over the last seven years, the new government has reproduced the old vices—but in even more arrogant and shameless ways. Many of those once-active young people have either left the country or become “internal refugees” or escapists- mentally and emotionally detached from civic life.
Yes, there are still NGOs, many of which remain loyal to Pashinyan. But let’s be honest: their loyalty isn’t ideological.
So who’s left in the civil sphere? Mostly older individuals with lower educational backgrounds. They, too, are disappointed. They see that the promises of 2018 were just bluff and demagoguery. But unlike the disillusioned youth, they still see “heroes” who they believe can be an alternative to Pashinyan.
This is how figures like the “local” and “American” Vardan Ghukasyans enter the political scene—people whose mentality and behavior are not so different from Pashinyan’s own.
I’m not saying these people will come to power, but this is the situation we’re in. Still, the most important thing remains depriving CP of power. No one will govern this country worse than Pashinyan. Almost anyone could serve as a transitional figure.
But now is the time to think about real, structural, radical change.
And for that, we need to mobilize the positive, still-unrealized potential of the 2018 revolution. Not the “tiger-striped” crowd that shifts its worship from one leader to the next—but the truly passionate masses.
I have some thoughts on what (not who, as people usually ask) can inspire that mass. But that’s a topic for another time.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
