The abbreviation “CP” (Civil contract party) has worn people out and often triggers negative emotions. Here’s an interesting episode: a man from Gyumri who worked for Sarik Minasyan was offended when someone called him a “CP member.” And he was right — people like that work for any government, not just CP.
There are many psychological reasons for this aversion, so it’s likely that the government will avoid running under the “CP” brand in the next elections. Rumor has it that in 2026, Pashinyan’s electoral list will be called “Real Armenia.” To be fair, this name is supposedly “inspired by the heart of the people.”
Accordingly, the cracked wall built in Kirants would be considered “Real Armenia,” while the Amaras Monastery, where Mesrop Mashtots once taught, would be relegated to being merely “historical” or “unreal.” In this logic, even Mashtots himself — and the Armenian alphabet — become “unreal.” Meanwhile, the barbecue handed out for free on Citizen’s Day is, of course, part of Real Armenia.
Why is barbecue “Real Armenia”? Very simple: because the pieces of chalaghaj that are chewed and end up in the stomach are tangible to our senses. A person cannot survive without such physical processes. But, as it seems, one can live perfectly well without Amaras, without the Armenian alphabet, or without the Narekatsi tah. When a certain Nikolyan writes me a letter saying, “MENQ GITENQ DU OV ES AY RSASTRUK,” (We know how you are, you- slave of Russia) what use does that “proud citizen” have for Mashtots’ alphabet?
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In short, Real Armenia is a perfectly effective pre-election slogan and resonates deeply with the mentality and fundamental desires of Pashinyan’s electorate.
The real question, however, is about the size of that electorate. Let’s assume, following the Italian sociologist Vilfredo Pareto, that people who genuinely believe in an idea make up about 20 percent of voters. Today, Pashinyan’s camp doesn’t even have that: 80 percent of his supporters simply back “Real Armenia.” Everything now depends on how well the needs of that 80 percent have been met over the past seven years. And by all appearances, the government has little to boast about.
Hence my belief that without gross violations, brutal force, and pressure from law enforcement, the government will not be able to reproduce itself. Pashinyan’s Real Armenia would thus fully resemble Aliyev’s Real Azerbaijan or Lukashenko’s Real Belarus.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
