“There is no chance that Azerbaijan’s expectations will not be met if the peace treaty is signed. In other words, we can be certain that all of Azerbaijan’s concerns will be dispelled 100%, and to achieve this, the peace treaty must be signed,” said Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
As far as I know, such an approach is truly unprecedented in the history of international relations. The role—or rather, the mission—of any head of state is to address the concerns of their own citizens, not those of a hostile neighbor. Promising in advance to meet the demands of another country (even a non-hostile one) is certainly a novel approach in diplomacy. After all, anyone making demands would be foolish not to expand their list if the other side pledges in advance to meet them. If someone says, “You expect a hundred rubles from me, but if necessary, I’ll give you a thousand,” the natural response might be, “Then why not ask for a million?”
Let me remind you that Azerbaijan is already demanding that Armenia amend its Constitution and jointly initiate the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group. But since, according to Pashinyan, these two demands are already “in Azerbaijan’s pocket,” he is effectively promising to meet additional demands after the signing of the “peace treaty.” For instance, allowing 300,000 Azerbaijanis to settle in Armenia. Even if only ten Azerbaijanis move here and one of them suffers a nosebleed, it could be used as a casus belli—a pretext for war—under the guise of “protecting the security of compatriots.”
Lasting peace in the South Caucasus is impossible as long as Azerbaijan retains the military and/or political capacity to attack Armenia. Signing any document—or building a wall in the village of Kirants—does not neutralize that capacity.
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How that balance of power might be created, and whether it is even theoretically possible today, is another conversation. But one thing is clear: declaring that “we will dispel all your concerns” is certainly not the way to build that balance.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
