I’ve noted many times that among Pashinyan’s supporters—besides the lumpen masses—there are also quite educated and literate individuals. One such person, who not only holds a university degree but also an academic title, recently argued with me. Reacting to my claim that “there has never been, and likely never will be, a worse leader in Armenia than Pashinyan,” he asserted that Armenia is now more independent in its foreign policy than ever before and that all sectors are currently “flourishing.”
Of course, this is the kind of rhetoric repeated six times a day by government representatives and propagandists. However, one of his other claims stood out: he insisted that Armenia’s economic indicators have improved “several times” under Pashinyan.
Debating with devout followers of the Nicolaitan (and anti-Nicolaitan) sects is, of course, futile. So instead, I’ll just present some basic data.
Let’s look at official figures from the RA Statistical Committee for January–April of this year compared to the same period last year. Exports dropped by 60.4%, and imports by 46.5%. This sharp decline also impacted the manufacturing sector, which fell by 16.1%.
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According to economists, the primary cause of this downturn is the massive drop in both exports (down 83.9%) and imports (down 86.2%) in the category of precious and semi-precious stones, precious metals, and related products. These numbers are largely the result of the fading “re-export” scheme, under which gold and gemstones imported from Russia passed through Armenia to destinations like the UAE and China—a process that significantly boosted Armenia’s post-2022 economic figures. Now, however, that scheme has lost momentum.
Experts have been warning for the past 2–3 years that, as the saying goes, “Grandpa won’t be eating pilaf forever.” Eventually, Russia would adapt to sanctions, learn to bypass them more effectively, or the sanctions themselves would be eased. Either way, building an economic strategy around temporary factors triggered in 2022 was always short-sighted.
It’s predictable that the economic situation will worsen over the next 2–3 years. And we know from past experience what this leads to: social tension and emigration.
People aren’t leaving Armenia only to prevent their sons from being drafted. The “brilliant idea” of paying to be exempt from military service is not a serious solution to emigration. As before 2018, people are leaving because they see no future here—due to a lack of jobs, poor wages, hostile conditions for small businesses, and the dire state of agriculture.
…Oh, I almost forgot. One thing has changed:
People’s faces have been smiling for seven years.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
