From the moment NATO bombed Yugoslavia in June 1999—without a corresponding resolution from the UN Security Council—it became clear to me personally that no legal mechanism exists to restrain wars. Yes, there had been other bloody wars after 1945—in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Africa, and the Middle East—but in the context of a bipolar world, there was at least some hope that international pressure could stop such conflicts. In the 21st century, that hope has vanished. There are no longer any actors capable of enforcing peace, nor mechanisms to guarantee it.
Before his second election campaign, Donald Trump claimed he could stop the war between Russia and Ukraine in a day—later, in a month, or three months. Has he? No. It turns out the conflict is beyond his power. He has no leverage over Putin; even if sanctions are applied, they have limited impact.
In the Israel-Iran conflict, the U.S. stands firmly with Israel. Trump, too, supports Tel Aviv—not necessarily through military aid, but politically. Israel’s real goal is not simply to “prevent Iran’s nuclear program” (that’s the pretext) but to engineer regime change, replacing Iran’s leadership with one that won’t make the destruction of Israel a national mission. Does that justify Israel’s aggression? In my opinion—no. In Trump’s opinion—yes. But even if the U.S. president genuinely wanted to stop the war, he couldn’t. And the UN Security Council, even acting unanimously, has long ceased to function as a meaningful peacemaker.
That’s why when people say things like, “That country wouldn’t dare attack its neighbor,” or “Another country won’t allow it,” or “The international community will intervene,” it sounds laughable. In our specific case, if Iran is weakened—as seems inevitable—no force will remain to deter Azerbaijan from launching a second round of aggression against Armenia.
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The Armenian government must urgently prepare to respond to this potential threat. But our ruling elite appears more interested in attacking the Armenian Church and its celibate clergy than defending the state.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
