No Armenian leader will be able to completely avoid war—or even indefinitely postpone it
War is inevitable. It will happen. When conflicts erupt all around us, we cannot realistically expect to remain a “crossroads of peace.” Whether the country is led by someone disconnected from reality and driven by psychological trauma, or by a more composed and rational figure, the outcome will be the same: we will not be able to prevent Azerbaijan from attacking the moment it feels ready.
If circumstances become favorable for Aliyev before Pashinyan’s potential re-election, he will strike. He will not be “grateful” for the Armenian Prime Minister’s disarmingly “benevolent” stance. And if the right opportunity arises later, he will strike then.
The real difference between Pashinyan and any other leader is not about avoiding war. The problem is that Pashinyan is doing everything to ensure that we are unprepared—economically, morally, politically, and militarily. He is laying the groundwork for surrender, for the dismantling of Armenian statehood.
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Another leader—not someone whose only concern is his own seat, his own ambitions, or “putting people in their place” on Facebook—might actually think about how to organize resistance (in the broadest sense of the word) and make an effort to preserve statehood. That alone would be a step forward, even though it will be extremely difficult in the aftermath of Pashinyan’s “glorious” leadership.
Let me offer some concrete examples.
Aliyev has a detailed plan to “return” 300,000 Azerbaijanis to what he calls “Western Azerbaijan.” Pashinyan will, in time, declare this acceptable: “Well, we won’t start a war over that.” His supporters will echo him: “Our Prime Minister is doing great—better than under Serzh.” Azerbaijanis arrive, accompanied by armed units, and set up a “spiritual center” in Etchmiadzin. What is this, if not the beginning of war?
Now imagine a different leader—someone who says this “return” is unacceptable. That single “no” may also trigger a war. But in that case, we will not have 300,000 Azerbaijanis with armed escorts embedded inside the territory of the Republic of Armenia. That is no small difference.
Here’s another example. Pashinyan and his inner circle routinely smear the clergy, calling them blasphemous, pedophiles, and perverse. His supporters accept this without question: “Yes, our governor is right—my uncle saw it with his own eyes…” But there are thousands in Armenia—and even more in the Diaspora—who reject this rhetoric, or at least believe the executive and legislative branches of government should stay out of such matters. These and other divisions are creating deep rifts and seeding hatred among us. In such a fractured society, can we really expect to fight together in the same trench?
And by “trench,” I mean more than just the literal one.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
