One of the central claims of official propaganda is this: “Whoever is against Pashinyan wants Armenia to become a province of Russia.” For example, if you take to the streets to protest the Prime Minister’s arbitrary rule—where he appears to govern the entire legal system through Facebook posts—then you’re branded a Kremlin agent.
There’s no logic in this. In terms of legal authoritarianism, Armenia’s current ruler could well be seen as a pupil of Putin. But once the word “province” is used as a kind of curse, some citizens no longer dare to say that Pashinyan might be wrong about anything.
One government supporter went so far as to warn: “Whoever disagrees with me is against Armenia’s sovereignty.” It reminds me of the 2013–14 Euromaidan chant in Kyiv and its various local adaptations: “Хто не скаче, той москаль” (“Whoever doesn’t jump is a Moskal”—or, in modern Armenian terms, a “Russian slave”).
One of the things I find most disturbing is this kind of activist blackmail: if you want to move with the crowd, you have to turn off your brain. This constant message of “if you say or do this, I will label you as that”—is this really the democratic and European path we claim to follow?
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As for the substance of the issue—setting aside propaganda or even sincere belief—the reality is grim. To build on a point made by political scientist Arman Grigoryan: we are faced with no good options.
In the first scenario, Russia withdraws from the South Caucasus. Turkey will see them off with typical “Eastern” decorum—smiles, gestures of friendship, and perhaps allowing a few symbolic traces of Russian presence to remain. Then Azerbaijan will present us with a bill: reparations, corridors, the “return” of Azerbaijanis, and more. (Emmanuel Macron, no doubt, will issue several strongly worded statements “in support of Armenia.”)
In the second scenario, Russia stays—and Armenia becomes a battleground for a Russia-Turkey conflict.
This is the terrible dilemma the current government has brought us to in just seven years.
The first outcome seems more likely, given Russia’s entanglement in Ukraine. In any case, the situation we’re in is what the French call a cul-de-sac. And we all know what it’s called in Russian.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
