During last year’s election campaign, Donald Trump promised to end the Russia–Ukraine war within 24 hours if elected. Later, after taking office, he said he’d do it within 100 days. Then it was by Easter. Then by May 9. Now July is already half over, and Russians and Ukrainians continue to destroy each other.
Trump’s statements can’t be dismissed as empty campaign promises. He genuinely wanted—and still wants—peace in Europe, and he has been making efforts toward that goal. It’s also a matter of his reputation. It’s not that the United States doesn’t want to end the war—it can’t.. Because both Zelensky and Putin, each for their own reasons, are unwilling to stop.
The important conclusion here is this: the so-called “multipolar world” does not actually exist. Until the late 1980s, the world was bipolar (the USSR and the USA). In the 1990s, it was unipolar (just the USA). But today, it’s not really multipolar—because there are no true “poles.” There isn’t even a single superpower left with the ability to impose its will, even on a small country.
And yet, the mindset of our politicians remains “polar.” They continue to think that either Russia or the United States can guarantee peace in the South Caucasus—and that the key question is simply, which one? The answer is: neither. It doesn’t matter where the so-called “peace agreement” is signed—in Moscow or in Washington—it won’t bring peace.
Read also
At this moment, it seems that Aliyev has “persuaded” Pashinyan to sideline Russia and hand over the road through Syunik—call it what you will—to some kind of “Turkish-American-European consortium.” That’s likely what Erdogan meant when he said in Stepanakert that Armenia’s position on the issue has become “more flexible.”
If that’s true, then we can assume that, in the short term, Azerbaijan is unlikely to launch a large-scale attack—at least until this deal is formally announced. On the other hand, it’s unclear whether Aliyev has fully accounted for Russia’s and Iran’s public and private reactions.
And most importantly, in the long run, there is no guarantee that “outsourcing” the road will prevent war.
Yes, political maneuvering—“playing games”—is sometimes necessary. But that requires a certain level of intelligence and skill. Unfortunately, our current authorities possess neither. What they have instead is unlimited narcissism. Remember the Dunning–Kruger effect.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
