“What, you don’t want peace—and it will be guaranteed by Trump?” This is a question I’ve often heard since August 8.
Let me say right away: I want peace. Moreover, I would very much like it to be guaranteed by the United States—by the state itself, not by Trump personally. Incidentally, I hope the next U.S. president will be J.D. Vance, who, in my view, would continue the same conservative course I find acceptable, but with, so to speak, a younger brain.
But here’s the question I ask myself: Is the United States—or, for that matter, any other country—actually capable of guaranteeing peace in any corner of the world? The issue is not that Americans wish us harm; rather, there are so many global and regional players, with such diverse interests, that it’s impossible for Washington to scare them all off.
When Civil Contract members and their sympathetic commentators say, “There will be no war,” they are partly right—in the sense that the likelihood of Azerbaijan attacking us in the next one to two years is not high. Baku has already taken so much from us that, for the moment, it may be enough for that country. This does not mean, however, that war in the region is ruled out in the same timeframe; in that regard, the hints from the leader of Iran’s conservative wing are troubling.
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These one or two years will be more than enough for Pashinyan to secure his political survival by “selling” the people the myth of supposedly eternal peace, all while enjoying the West’s full support. In turn, the West will turn a blind eye to the political repressions that have already begun and will soon intensify.
Then, in one or two years, tensions will rise again—when the real owners of the “consortium” operating in southern Armenia are revealed, threatening to blockade our country. At that point, either a new war will break out, or Pashinyan will sign yet another document, and his aides will proclaim it an “unprecedented success” for our diplomacy.
I am in favor of peace—with both hands. But I am also in favor of telling the people of Armenia the truth.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
