by Suren Sargsyan
As expected, the statement signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan under the mediation of the United States became a subject of serious discussion not only in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the United States, but also throughout the South Caucasus and its neighboring countries. It was evident that there would be two opinions in Armenia: the authorities would be accused of treason by the opposition, while their supporters would point to it as an important achievement from the perspective of establishing peace in the region. However, in all this, we must also pay attention to the positions of the regional players who have a significant role in the South Caucasus.
It was natural for the Islamic Republic of Iran to react, making statements at various levels and in different formats, expressing its position regarding the road and the American presence. Despite the various statements, in my view those statements can be described as mild and cautious. Russia spoke rather cautiously too and refrained from harsh assessments, which means that Russia will still wait to understand what exactly this project will entail. For Moscow and Tehran, it is noteworthy how the road will take shape and what involvement the United States will have in it.
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Although the statements from Tehran and Moscow were quite restrained, with only a few minor harsh remarks, they indicate that the document signed in Washington was prepared rather quickly, and that decisions regarding its timelines were made swiftly. Consequently, Armenia and Azerbaijan were unable to inform their neighboring states about the planned agreement or they simply avoided doing so in order not to receive pressure before the signing ceremony. In the coming days, the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to visit Armenia. There is no doubt that the main topic for the discussion will be the signed statement and its implementation.
Afterwards, the prime minister of Armenia hastened to inform President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin about the contents of this agreement and what details were addressed in Washington.
A number of countries rushed to welcome this trilateral statement. Moreover, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Minsk Group co-chair countries, particularly France, announced that they are ready to dissolve the Minsk Group, as agreed upon by the two states.
As the first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrossian said, “I am convinced that it is only possible to comment on it after the agreement has been put into effect. At present, I am somewhat puzzled by the varied (though perhaps complimentary) assessments of our friendly Iran’s officials and, in particular, by Russia’s almost complete silence.”
How well the Armenian side will be able to properly explain, present, and convince Iran and Russia that their interests are not being infringed upon will be evident eventually. However, one thing is clear: if for Iran the very existence of this route was already a red line — and this has been repeatedly emphasized by Iran’s leadership — then in this case the American presence should be considered by them as a doubly serious and unacceptable circumstance.
As for Russia, throughout history there has been only one instance when the United States had the opportunity to push Russia out of the South Caucasus, including from countries that had previously been within its sphere of influence, and that was in the 1990s, when Russia was extremely weak socioeconomically and could not safeguard its interests even within former Soviet republics.
As for whether the United States will now succeed in securing a presence in Armenia, in proximity to Iran and not far from a Russian military base, that is something only time will tell.