The fact that Donald Trump, who “established peace” between Armenia and Azerbaijan and was even nominated for the Nobel Prize for it, cannot correctly pronounce or even remember the names of the countries he supposedly “reconcilled”, does not point to the U.S. president’s age problems, nor to a contemptuous attitude toward our states.
It means only one thing: for the U.S., the situation in the South Caucasus is not determined by our relations with Azerbaijan. Trump, of course, wants to declare everywhere that he has established peace throughout the world, including between distant “Aber-baijan” and “Albania.”
But the United States is an established, democratic country, and that means foreign policy is based on institutional foundations, not solely on the ambitions of one person. It is in the U.S. interest, of course, that peace be established between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but the main task of that country is not to make sure we do not shoot at each other—it is to isolate Iran. Paul Goble, an analyst who worked closely with the State Department, spoke about this more than 30 years ago. That is what state-institutional memory means: plans are developed for decades.
And in reality, whether peace will be established or not, by and large, no one except us and the Azerbaijanis really cares. Not only the U.S., but also Russia, Europe, and Iran—it is a priority for none of them. And it cannot be. International politics does not work that way, and there is no need to be offended by anyone.
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The second, less important goal of the U.S. is to push Russia out of this region. Both of these goals, it must be said, are being successfully pursued. Iran has been weakened by Israeli strikes, Russia by the war it unleashed, and it is not yet clear how they will resist the West here.
Will this situation last forever? I think not. It is our authorities who think only in terms of pre-election cycles, while no one can say what will happen in 5–10 years.
The U.S., of course, will not implement its policy “individually.” Here it has an “operator”—Turkey. By the way, next year’s NATO summit will be held in Ankara.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
